In today’s briefing:
- Weekly Market Monitor – Week 21 – Embracing the AI Boom
- UK: Return to Flattened Trend in Apr-23
- CX Daily: China’s Holiday Spending Boom Masks Patchy Recovery
- US 2-Year Futures
- TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Patience
Weekly Market Monitor – Week 21 – Embracing the AI Boom
- NVIDIA’s recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.
- Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.
- Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies’ market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.
UK: Return to Flattened Trend in Apr-23
- UK retail sales in April 2023 showed an unexpected rebound with 0.5% m-o-m growth, outperforming the previous month’s -1.2% contraction and beating the 0.3% consensus.
- This rise represents the highest growth rate since February 2023 and positions April’s sales performance above the 1-year and long-run averages.
- It reinforces recent signs of recovery in the UK retail sector, breaking the downward trend and providing crucial insights into the economic landscape.
CX Daily: China’s Holiday Spending Boom Masks Patchy Recovery
- Consumption /Analysis: China’s holiday spending boom masks patchy recovery
- LGFVs /: Kunming scrambles to pay off $170 million of financing vehicle debt
- China-U.S. /: Top trade officials from China and U.S. to meet at APEC
US 2-Year Futures
- The two-year futures broke a bear flag pattern and stopped at the Monthly Pivot S2.
- We will likely see a temporary pause and a verification of the broken flag.
- The 2-year HLC Bar chart is difficult to read due to spikes in the data.
TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Patience
- Patience is a virtue, patience is a virtue – that’s the mantra running through our head as debt ceiling talks drone on and the Curtain of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) continues to obscure the prospects for the brighter future we envision.
- The oscillating nature of economic data and cross asset market pricing has tried the patience of bull and bear alike.
- The bulls have had to be content with roughly 10% gains ytd for global equities while the media drumbeat continues to hammer recession, rate hikes and the utility of cash – notwithstanding its weak relative performance YTD.
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