In today’s briefing:
- Thematic Report: Cut in Personal Taxes Can Lead to Surge in Consumption & GDP Growth
- Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rebound as Investors Look Past Tariff Threats
- Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market
- WTR Ethanol-Carbon Capture & Storage Primer
- Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Two-Wheeler Companies (January 2025)
- Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery
- [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing
- Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Passenger Vehicle Companies (January 2025)
- Hardman & Co Insight: The October 2024 Budget – We got it wrong
- What’s News in Amsterdam – 10 February 2025 (Wolters Kluwer | NX Filtration | Corporate agenda)
Thematic Report: Cut in Personal Taxes Can Lead to Surge in Consumption & GDP Growth
- Reduction of personal income tax can lead to an additional aggregate income of INR 1 Lakh crores, which can create additional consumption of INR 5 lakh crores; uplifting GDP.
- USA and China are the good cases studies where such kind of consumption boom happened
- With India at inflection point of $2000 GDP, discretionary consumption set for boom.
Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rebound as Investors Look Past Tariff Threats
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq jumped nearly 1%, driven by a 3% surge in Nvidia.
- Japan posted a record-high current account surplus of ¥29.26tn in 2024, up 29.5% year-on-year, driven by strong returns on foreign investments
- Elon Musk and investors bid $97B to acquire OpenAI, aiming to restore its non-profit mission, amid legal battles with CEO Sam Altman.
Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market
- Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market
- In financials, insurers are a lower volatility way of playing the equity market revival
- Watch for a reversal of bond yields as a signal to buy
WTR Ethanol-Carbon Capture & Storage Primer
- Will carbon capture & storage (CCS) enable a boom in low- carbon ethanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)?
- CCS involves capturing CO2 emissions, purifying, transporting, and permanently storing in geological formations underground.
- Low- carbon ethanol and SAF offer among the most compelling opportunities for CCS and are worth attention as (1) ethanol carbon capture is among the lowest-cost CCS applications,
Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Two-Wheeler Companies (January 2025)
- With the government’s push for consumption through tax relief, the Indian two industry is optimistic about a strong demand in coming months.
- Domestic volumes for Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) declined 11% and 2%YoY,respectively,while forTVS Motor (TVSL IN) and Eicher Motors (EIM IN)increased 10% and 15% YoY,respectively
- In the exports segment, Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) , TVS Motor (TVSL IN) , and Eicher Motors (EIM IN) recorded YoY volume growth of 37%, 52%, and 141%, respectively.
Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery
- As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY;
- Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025?
- We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.
[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing
- Tencent and NetEase games showed strong during CNY, echoing strong box office showing. Express delivery data suggested robust e-commerce performance;
- However, as a big ticket item with no subsidies support, housing market petered out quickly after CNY, which suggests recovery is still fragile;
- Meituan’s milk tea order volume jumped after introducing social gift functions. Meituan and JD.com are two beneficiaries of social gifting from the GMV angle with Tencent from the advertising angle.
Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Passenger Vehicle Companies (January 2025)
- Continuing the trend from December’24, wholesale volume growth in Jan’2025 remained strong in the passenger vehicle segment. This was driven by channel filling, and strong rural demand.
- Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN),holding approximately 43% market share, reported growth in both the utility vehicle (UV) and compact SUV segments. Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) reported 18% YoY growth.
- Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) & Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) reported decline in volume growth. Tax initiatives introduced in recent Union Budget are expected to increase demand in medium term.
Hardman & Co Insight: The October 2024 Budget – We got it wrong
- Our Hardman & Co Insight of October 2024 looked forward to the first Labour Budget for 14 years.
- The main theme was that, because the new Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, had ruled out increases in taxes on ‘working people’, investors would bear the brunt of any tax increases to fill the alleged £22bn hole in the public finances left to the new government by the Tories.
- The pain that was going to be suffered was increased by the aim to raise some more to improve public services, so Reeves booked £40bn of tax rises.
What’s News in Amsterdam – 10 February 2025 (Wolters Kluwer | NX Filtration | Corporate agenda)
- Wolters Kluwer Financial & Corporate Compliance (“FCC”) has signed an agreement to acquire Registered Agent Solutions, Inc. (“RASi”) for approximately USD 415m in cash.
- The acquisition will expand the presence of FCC Legal Services (“CT Corporation”) with small businesses, middle-market companies and law firms in the U.S.
- RASi serves thousands of customers across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
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