Daily BriefsIPOs and Placements

Equity Capital Markets: Bukalapak, CTOS Digital, Transcenta Holding and more

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (18th July 2021) – Krafton, Kakao Bank, Bukalapak, Filinvest REIT, Zomato, China ADR IPO
  • Bukalapak IPO Initiation: Island Shopping
  • CTOS Digital IPO Trading – Strong Demand
  • Transcenta (创胜) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

ECM Weekly (18th July 2021) – Krafton, Kakao Bank, Bukalapak, Filinvest REIT, Zomato, China ADR IPO

By Zhen Zhou, Toh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

ECM activity eased after China’s Cyber Security announcement last week. 

It was reported that Bytedance has earlier halted its US IPO plans after warnings of data security from Chinese regulators. Adding to the list of halted China ADR IPO plans is Alibaba-and-Tencent-backed Xiaohongshu. Lalamove was also reported to be considering moving its US$1bn IPO to Hong Kong as well. 

On top of that, China is planning on exempting Hong Kong IPOs from seeking the approval of cybersecurity regulators, showing that it was specifically targeting US listings. Following our coverage on the event, this week, we discussed the new draft Cyber Security Review measures and its likely impact on future listings. 

For live deals this week, in Korea, we initiated on Kakao Bank, South Korea’s largest digital bank. Its US$2.2bn bookbuild will close on Wednesday, pricing on Thursday and it is expected to debut on 4th August. Despite its short operating history, Kakao Bank has recorded a stupendous growth rate.

Continuing our coverage on Krafton, we shared our thoughts on valuation, index inclusion, and its tiered IPO lock-up agreements. Books were said to be multiple times covered. Bookbuild is expected to close on 27th July and debut on 10th August.

In Indonesia, we shared our thoughts on valuation of Bukalapak. Later in the week, it was reported that IPO bookbuild was upsized to US$1.5bn, up from an initial US$1.1bn deal. Books were multiple times covered, with interests coming from global long-only investors, sovereign wealth funds and domestic institutions, as per media reports. Bookbuild will close on Monday and shares will trade on 6th August.

In the Philippines, Filinvest REIT launched its US$240m bookbuild. Despite an initial portfolio of 17 properties, we think that the REIT is like a single asset. The REIT has since guided pricing towards the lower end of the IPO price range. Books will close Monday and begin trading on 12th August. 

In India, Zomato closed its bookbuild, raising US$1.26bn and making it the largest listing in India from the technology sector. Books were oversubscribed by 38x with QIBs subscription at the highest 51.79x and HNI at 32.97x. Shares will debut on 27 July, and we covered the deal earlier:

Yidu Tech IPO lock-up expired Thursday this week and about a  total of about US$2bn worth of shares have been freed up. We discuss the profile of shareholders and their likelihood of selling in:

In Hong Kong, there were multiple biopharma debuts. Brii Biosciences debuted on Tuesday, traded slightly upwards on its first day before dipping, breaking deal price, and closing 6.5% below deal price on Friday. 

Medlive Technology priced its bookbuild at the top end and began trading on Thursday. Shares did well on its first day, closing 14% higher and ended the week 10.5% above IPO price. 

Kindstar Globalgene was priced at the top end and began trading on Friday. The IPO debuted poorly and closed 7.6% below IPO price on its first day. 

New filings this week include digital payments providers One 97 Communications Limited (Paytm) and Mobikwik. They are looking to raise US$2.2bn and US$255m, respectively, from their India IPOs. The former is backed by Softbank, while the latter boasts pre-IPO investors that include American Express, Cisco, Sequoia etc.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 73.7% for IPOs and 67.5% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings this week

  • One 97 Communications Limited (PayTM) (India, US$2.2bn)
  • Mobikwik (India, US$255m)

News on Upcoming IPOs

Hong Kong/China

US/China ADRs

India

Others

Analysis on Upcoming IPOs

NameInsight
Hong Kong
Anjuke

Anjuke Pre-IPO – Mixed (Positive and Negative) Developments 

Betta Pharma

Betta Pharma (贝达医药) A+H: Tier 2 Player Struggled to Break Out 

Broncus

Broncus (堃博医疗) Pre-IPO: Big Potential to Be Tested 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: How Has It Done in 1H? 

ByteDance

ByteDance: The Unlisted Company’s Video Apps Leading the Market and Threatening Internet Giants 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO – Globally the Most Downloaded App for Jan 2020 Driven by India 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Global Ambition Meets Regulatory Challenges 

Dida

Dida Pre-IPO – Making Hay While Big Brother Retreats 

Dida

Dida Pre-IPO – Earnings Forecast and First Stab at Valuation 

Dida

Dida Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Lagging in Scale, Leading in Profitability 

Edding Grp

Edding Group (亿腾医药) Pre-IPO: Notes from Latest Financials and Its Related Party 

Edding Grp

Edding Group (亿腾医药) Pre-IPO: Notes from Latest Financials and Its Related Party 

Hanyu

Shanghai Hanyu (捍宇医疗) Pre-IPO: Not a Straight-A but Listing at Right Time 

Intco Med

Intco Medical (英科医疗) A+H: From China No.1 to Global No. 1 

Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO – Rapid Earnings Growth on the Back of Margin Improvement 

Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO – A Lot of Things Still Remain Unexplained 

Novotech

Novotech Pre-IPO: Biotech Focused CRO at Hefty Pre-IPO Valuation 

RemeGen RemeGen (荣昌生物) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation of RC18 and RC48 
SH Bio-heart Shanghai Bio-Heart (上海百心安) Pre-IPO: Needs a Long Runway 
Toplist Toplist China Pre-IPO – Overwhelmingly More Negatives than Positives 
Tasly Tasly Biopharm (天士力生物) IPO: Visible Growth from Approved Drug but Lacks Blockbusters 
WeDoctor WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO -App Walk Through – The Online Medical Directory and More 
WeDoctor WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO – A More Focused Online Medical Svc Provider than Ping An Good Doctor 
WeDoctor We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Picking Its Battles Wisely 
WeDoctor We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO – Forecasts, Early Thoughts on Valuation, and Acquisition Gripes 
Weilong Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth, Strong Backers 
Weilong Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Spicy Valuation 
WM Tech WM Tech Pre-IPO – Digitalization Efforts Coming Through but Not Well Substantiated 
WM Tech WM Tech Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison and Pre-IPO Valuation – Some Signs of Advantage 
India
Aadhar Housing Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Decent past Growth but Comes with Weird Disclosures 
ASK ASK Investment Managers Pre-IPO – Riding on a Wave of Wealth 
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotel

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

Bajaj En

Bajaj Energy Pre-IPO – Supposed to Deliver Steady Performance if Only Its Sole Client Would Let It 

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO – When a PE Sells to Another PE… Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
ESAF SFB ESAF Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO – Growing Fast but Remains Highly Dependant on a Related Party 
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
Emami Cem Emami Cement Pre-IPO – Still in Ramp Up Phase but Shares Pledge Might Lead to an Early IPO 
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some

LIC

Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO – Early Take on India’s Largest IPO 
Penna Cem Penna Cement – Aggressive Expansion Plans Even Though Past Performance Has Been Tepid 
PNB MetPNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
Samhi Hotels Samhi Hotels Pre-IPO – Assets and Borrowings Are Growing, but Earnings Haven’t Kept Pace 
Zomato Zomato Pre-IPO – Filings Lack Narrative, a Little Bit of History Helps 
Zomato Zomato Pre-IPO – Food Delivery Revenue Was Probably up 16x 
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food
The U.S.
ForU ForU Worldwide Pre-IPO – Mostly Negatives 
Qiniu Qiniu Cloud (七牛云) Pre-IPO: PaaS Doesn’t Warrant a Premium 

Bukalapak IPO Initiation: Island Shopping

By Arun George

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ), which means ‘opening a kiosk’ in Indonesian, is a leading e-commerce player in non-Tier 1 cities in Indonesia, with a market share of 35% in 2020 based on GMV (gross merchandise value), according to Frost & Sullivan. Bukalapak carries out its main business activities through the mobile platform Bukalapak and Bukalapak Partners. Bukalapak has increased its IPO size by about a third to $1.5 billion due to strong demand, according to press reports. Bookbuilding will close on 19 July and the shares are set to list on 6 August. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the rate of e-commerce adoption in Indonesia as more consumers are reluctant to travel and started changing their shopping habits to online shopping, due to personal preferences or lockdown restrictions. The share of e-commerce of total retail spending in Indonesia has grown from 5.6% in 2017 to around 22% in 2020 and will reach 35.9% in 2025, according to Frost & Sullivan. 

Like its peers, Bukalapak is benefiting from this market tailwind. Bukalapak’s strategy of focusing on consumers in the non-Tier 1 area and the mass market in the Tier 1 area results in a relatively small overlap (less than 20%) between its customers and customers of other online marketplaces such as Sea Ltd (SE US)‘s Shopee, Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) and Alibaba Group (BABA US)‘s Lazada. Competitors generally target the affluent segment of the market. Overall, Bukalapak’s fundamentals tick all the right boxes of rising monetisation, lower losses and declining cash burn, in our view. We will discuss valuation in our next note. 


CTOS Digital IPO Trading – Strong Demand

By Sumeet Singh

CTOS Digital (CTOS) raised around US$291m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. 

In this note, we will talk about the updates since then and the trading dynamics.


Transcenta (创胜) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Transcenta, formerly Mabspace, is a global clinical stage biopharmaceutical company. It is looking to raise up to USD 200m via a Hong Kong listing.  

In our previous note, we looked at two drug candidates, the next generation PD-L1 MSB2311, and the Claudin 18.2 antibody, TS001. MSB2311 features PH-dependent binding property that can result in recycling of the antibody. TS001 improves the binding property and hence increases the addressable market vs the benchmark zolbetuximab. We think the company’s products are differentiated though both PD-1/PD-L1, and the Claudin 18.2 class of drugs are intensely contested. The company has a strong management team with relevant experience of R&D. It also has pre-IPO investors with four rounds of capital raising pre-IPO. 

In this note, we will provide our thoughts on valuation.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma