Daily BriefsIPOs and Placements

Equity Capital Markets: Japan Post Holdings, Paytm and more

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (10th October 2021) – Japan Post, MicroPort Medbot, MicroTech, FWD, Medbanks, 4Paradigm
  • Paytm IPO: Valuation First Look

ECM Weekly (10th October 2021) – Japan Post, MicroPort Medbot, MicroTech, FWD, Medbanks, 4Paradigm

By Zhen Zhou, Toh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Events next week:

ECM activity is certainly starting to heat up in Asia Pacific. In particular, Japan has had a steady stream of large placements. This week Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) was the center of attention as plans of the Japanese government selldown is slated to open this Monday, and price on the 25th of October.  The selldown has been well-flagged and it will be a quasi clean-up. We revisited Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) just before its pricing and so far, Hulic’s share price has been holding up above its deal price. 

Back to IPOs, in Hong Kong, MicroTech Medical Hangzhou (2235 HK) launched its bookbuild on Wednesday and it will close this coming Monday. The company’s listing debut is on 19th October. We think valuation looks full despite the strong cornerstone line-up.

We initiated on IPOs in the pipeline, Medbanks Network Technology (1690522D CH), an healthcare service provider with an oncology and pharmacy tilt,  and 4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. 

We also shared our thoughts on valuation of Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (MMG HK), which is set to capture significant market share in China’s laparoscopic robotic surgical market.

In the U.S, FWD Group Holdings (FWD US) has been doing its rounds, meeting investors. We took a closer look at how the company compares to regional insurance competitors and share our thoughts on its valuation.

Last, but not least, tearsheets for newly filed IPOs this week:

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 73.8% for IPOs and 67.8% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings this week

  • Green Tea Group (Hong Kong, US$200m, refiled)
  • Farm Fresh (Indonesia, US$125m)

News on Upcoming IPOs

Hong Kong/China

US/China ADR

India

Japan/Korea

Others

Others

Analysis on Upcoming IPOs

NameInsight
Hong Kong
4Paradigm

4Paradigm (第四范式智能) Pre-IPO – Stupendous Growth but Needs Better Disclosure of Certain Data 

APM Monaco

APM Monaco Pre-IPO – China’s Resilience Shines 

Airdoc

Beijing Airdoc (北京鹰瞳科技) Pre-IPO – A Niche Field with Merits but Can It Sell? 

Anjuke

Anjuke Pre-IPO – Mixed (Positive and Negative) Developments 

Ambio

AmbioPharm (昂博制药) Pre-IPO: Peptide CDMO Leader Turning Licensor 

Biel Crystal

Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO – Cash Flow Generative Business but Underlying Trend Is Worrying 

Biel Crystal

Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO – Industry Landscape & Peer Comparison –  Auto Is the Wildcard 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: How Has It Done in 1H? 

ByteDance

ByteDance: The Unlisted Company’s Video Apps Leading the Market and Threatening Internet Giants 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO – Globally the Most Downloaded App for Jan 2020 Driven by India 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Global Ambition Meets Regulatory Challenges 

Cloud Village

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO – Mixed PHIP Update, Updated Thoughts on Valuation 

Cloud Village

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation 

Cloud Village

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO – Tencent Music Peer Comp, Regulatory Impact 

Cloud Village

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO – Was in the Slow Stream, Playing Catch-Up 

Edda 

EDDA Healthcare Pre-IPO – RoboDoc – Has Been Around for a While but Is Just Getting the Robo Going 

Dingdang

Dingdang Health Tech (叮当健康) Pre-IPO – Impressive Growth but Not Without Concerns 

Intco Med

Intco Medical (英科医疗) A+H: From China No.1 to Global No. 1 

Imeik

Imeik Tech (爱美客) A/H Pre-IPO – Dermal Filler Leader Capitalizing on Its Valuation 

Jenscare

Jenscare (宁波健世科技) Pre-IPO: Differentiated Heart Valve Portfolio 

Medbanks

Medbanks (思派健康) Pre-IPO – Caught a Lucky Break 

MicroPort Medbot

MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO – RoboDoc – Pre-Revenue, Has a Large Competitor but a Large Market as Well 

NewMed

NewMed (纽脉医疗) Pre-IPO: Uphill Battle for TAVR but Leads the TMVR 

Neusoft Xikang

Neusoft Xikang (东软熙康) Pre-IPO: A Long Way to Profit 

Neusoft Med

Neusoft Medical Systems (东软医疗系统) Pre-IPO: Unattractive Fundamentals 

WeDoctor WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO -App Walk Through – The Online Medical Directory and More 
WeDoctor WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO – A More Focused Online Medical Svc Provider than Ping An Good Doctor 
WeDoctor We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Picking Its Battles Wisely 
WeDoctor We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO – Forecasts, Early Thoughts on Valuation, and Acquisition Gripes 
Weilong Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth, Strong Backers 
Weilong Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Spicy Valuation 
WM Tech WM Tech Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison and Pre-IPO Valuation – Some Signs of Advantage 
WM Tech WM Tech Pre-IPO – Digitalization Efforts Coming Through but Not Well Substantiated 
India
Aadhar Housing Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Decent past Growth but Comes with Weird Disclosures 
Aditya AMC Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Pre-IPO – Strong Profit Growth but It’s Losing Market Share 
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotel

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

Bajaj En

Bajaj Energy Pre-IPO – Supposed to Deliver Steady Performance if Only Its Sole Client Would Let It 

Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
ESAF SFB ESAF Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO – Growing Fast but Remains Highly Dependant on a Related Party 
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
Emami Cem Emami Cement Pre-IPO – Still in Ramp Up Phase but Shares Pledge Might Lead to an Early IPO 
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some

LIC

Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO – Early Take on India’s Largest IPO 
Penna Cem Penna Cement – Aggressive Expansion Plans Even Though Past Performance Has Been Tepid 
PNB MetPNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food

Paytm IPO: Valuation First Look

By Arun George

Paytm (PAYTM IN), formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm’s shareholders include Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) (7.2%) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) (2.8%).  

Paytm is in talks with firms such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, GIC, Blackrock and Noumra to become anchor investors in its upcoming IPO, according to press reports. Paytm is also seeking to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) at a $20-22 billion valuation, according to press reports. 

In Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App, we opined that as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, One Mobikwik Systems (1235487D IN)) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim to the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. We concluded that Paytm’s fundamentals are attractive. 

In this note, we take a first look at Paytm’s valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.


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