Daily BriefsJapan

Japan: Aomori Bank, Softbank Group, Harmonic Drive Systems and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Aomori Bank (8342) Michinoku Bank (8350) Bank Merger
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, Sydney Airports, SPH, SingTel, Oil Search, Japex/Inpex, Nippo
  • Harmonic Drive – Surprise Downward

Aomori Bank (8342) Michinoku Bank (8350) Bank Merger

By Travis Lundy

  • Aomori Bank (8342 JP) and fellow Aomori Prefecture denizen Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) agreed in 2019 to form an operational alliance, widely seen as a precursor to merging.
  • Sep 2020 saw a Nikkei interview and a merger was announced in May this year. 
  • Now we have the details, and a plan to integrate.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, Sydney Airports, SPH, SingTel, Oil Search, Japex/Inpex, Nippo

By David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE …

  • Plus, other events, CCASS movements (flagging possible Offers and  IPO lock-ups), and Mood Spins.

(This insight covers specific insights & comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events – or SPACE – in the past week)

Note: because of changes to the formatting at Smartkarma, this is the last SPACE insight where the entire week’s summary (and the occasional Dr. Evil) appear above the line. 

M&A – ASIA

Softbank Group (9984 JP) (Mkt Cap: $100bn; Liquidity: $1bn)

The buyback programme as announced is to spend up to ¥1tn buying back up to 250,000,000 shares. Whichever limit is reached first is the limit for the programme. Of course, Softbank has a history of announcing new programmes before the old one is even finished if it has not had the appropriate effect.  In this case, the appropriate effect would be a narrowing of the Discount to NAV. The buybacks in summer and winter of 2020 saw ¥500bn bought in a quarter where this one suggests a ¥1 trillion buyback could take a year. ¥1 trillion at (the then) last price was 162mm – bout 29% of Real World Float.

  • There is still some monetisation to be had in TMUS so Travis Lundy doesn’t see a real problem with funding the ¥1bn, but expects the wariness around timing and ambiguity about the reasons for it taking perhaps more than a year may cause people to wonder whether they have the cash.  When the intraday volatility starts slowing down, that may be the time to start buying. This year has taught Son-san that he cannot expect to maintain a discount to NAV in the 20s. People simply don’t trust him and the portfolio choices and the governance yet. But a move from 45% to 30% is nearly 30% outperformance vs the NAV.
  • Travis would want to be long. he’d prefer to be long at ¥ 6161/share vs NAV. He would want to have a base position on, and increase on confirmation of effectiveness. 29% of Real World Float is a LOT. It will have a decent impact over time. He would also buy dips rather than chase, and would aggressively buy dips on Discount to NAV at 55% or greater. 
  • Given the slight rule clarification on After School Teaching, allowing private tutoring for the Year 9 and up for foreign testing programs, Travis expects that will be a somewhat high-margin business and some businesses will pivot hard into that space using existing distribution/marketing capabilities. This may provide a near-term floor under the China education portion of the portfolio. 

(link to Travis’ insight: Softbank Buyback – $9 Biiiilllyun Dollars)

Sydney Airport (SYD AU)  (Mkt Cap: $16.7bn; Liquidity: $53mn)

SYD granted the Sydney Aviation Alliance (SAA, comprising  IFM Investors, AustralianSuper, QSuper, and Global Infrastructure Partners) non-exclusive due diligence on the 13 September after receiving an A$8.75/share conditional proposal – a 51% premium to the undisturbed price on the 4 July 2021. This followed rejections from SYD of an $8.25/share proposal on the 15 July, and an $8.45 bid on the 16 August. Now SYD has entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement (SID) with SAA. The offer consideration is unchanged at A$8.75/share. As previously indicated, UniSuper (SYD’s largest shareholder with 15.01%) will roll over its equity stake into the Consortium, rather than receive the cash consideration. The bid values SYD’s equity at $23.6bn. It is the largest ever cash-bid for an Aussie-listed company.

  • In addition to the Scheme vote, the key condition to the deal is ACCC approval. Under Australia’s Airports Act, no single investor can hold more than 15% of two major Australian airports, be they Sydney and Perth, Sydney and Brisbane, or Sydney and Melbourne.  IFM currently has stakes in nine Australian airports including 25.17% in Melbourne Airport and 20% in Brisbane Airport Corporation. IFM cannot hold more than 15% in SYD. It is understood that IFM will argue these holdings in Melbourne and Brisbane are under its Australian fund, whereas the intended SYD stake would be split between its Aussie and global infrastructure funds.  This appears a tad contentious.  The provisional date for the announcement of ACCC’s findings is the 16 December. 
  • 42k passengers (split 54.7%/45.3% for domestic and international) passed through SYD in September, compared to 132k in September 2020. Traffic was 3.6mn (split 62.6%/37.4% for domestic and international) in September 2019. Beginning this month. people arriving in New South Wales (the state in which Sydney is located) who are fully vaccinated will not need to quarantine. People arriving in NSW from overseas who are not fully vaccinated must quarantine for 14 days. A cap on arrivals who are not fully vaccinated will apply. Expect a big uptick in traffic data this month.
  • Trading at a 6.1%/22.7% gross/annualised spread (at the time of the insight) – assuming late February completion. That looks reasonable. ACCC is not a rubber stamp. However, the Consortium’s lawyer (Herbert Smith Freehills) and bankers (Goldman and Macquarie) no doubt believe the structure put forth will gain the necessary approval. 

(link to my insight: Sydney Airport’s (SYD AU) SID With SAA)

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) (Mkt Cap: $2.6bn; Liquidity: $9mn)

On October 29, when Keppel Corp (KEP SP)‘s Consideration was trading at S$2.09 per SPH share while the shares were trading at S$1.99/share, a new entity called Cuscaden Peak Pte. Limited, backed by Hotel Properties Limited, Capitaland, and Mapletree Investments – two Temasek-backed entities – came out and proposed a bid of S$2.10/share in cash plus the S$0.03 dividend to come. The same day Keppel said it would think about how to respond. The shares bounced, and traded “through terms” with Keppel’s terms jumping as some arbitrageurs bought back their REIT baskets.  Keppel has now bumped its cash component.

  • The entry of Cuscaden has served its purpose.  Keppel has responded, as expected, with more cash. The extra S$0.20/share is just what the doctor ordered. It is also a FINAL OFFER which will not be increased. That sets a target for Cuscaden Peak Pte Ltd. If they want to win, they need S$2.35-2.40 cash at a minimum (plus the S$0.03 dividend?) They would want to put that out there pronto. SPH has given them a week. If they decide on a General Offer, they have a bit more time. 
  • After the Cuscaden approach was made public, the SPH REIT Basket (SPH REIT and Keppel REIT) jumped in value vs peers and they are no longer as interesting to hold vs peers. That means two things: A Cuscaden Offer can be tighter to the Keppel deal and still be good. It is less interesting for arbitrageurs to hold SPH outright, hoping for a Cuscaden offer. Whereas one had a buffer before on the REIT value, one doesn’t have nearly the same buffer now. The big risk on the Keppel Offer remains flowback. The delivered number of units is massive in terms of days of ADV. Travis puts the likelihood of a Cuscaden overbid at better than 50%.
  • If you are an SPH holder and you think this is it – no Cuscaden overbid – then sell at or near S$2.35. Let other people take the REIT flowback risk. If you are an SPH holder and you think there is a good chance Cuscaden will overbid in cash, then you might wait. As an arbitrageur…If SPH trades at S$2.38 or higher, sell. If SPH trades at S$2.30 or lower, buy. As a current SPH long-only holder…If SPH trades at S$2.38 or higher, sell. 

Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU)  (Mkt Cap: $6.4bn; Liquidity: $34mn)

OSH’s Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 7 December. The Independent Export says the Offer is fair. The Scheme is also subject to certain PNG (Securities Commission and  Independent Consumer and Competition Commission [ICCC]) and other regulatory approvals (CFIUS, now received) being obtained. PNG’s competition watchdog, the ICCC, announced on Twitter that it has received an Authorisation Application from Santos on the 4th November concerning its proposed merger with Oil Search.  The full application is here and the Q&A here.

  • Santos’ application, not surprisingly, concludes the transaction will not substantially lessen competition in any relevant market, and the public benefits of the transaction outweigh the public. “Accordingly, Santos requests that the ICCC provide clearance (or alternatively, authorization) for the Transaction“.

  • Additionally, the industry sector in which the PNG LNG Project operates is a highly regulated one. The powers given under the Oil & Gas Act include the ability to intervene if there is any suggestion of use of market power or other anti-competitive conduct. The Oil & Gas Act effectively controls the domestic price of natural gas. All told, expect the ICCC to sign off on the deal. 

(link to my insight: Oil Search (OSH AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting on 7 December)

Nippo Corp (1881 JP)  (Mkt Cap: $4.3bn; Liquidity: $21mn)

Activist/agitator in Japan, Oasis Capital Management, has set up a website called www.protectnippo.com. The website calls for interested parties to come forth if they wish to bid, saying that the Special Committee of NIPPO and NIPPO Board, and ENEOS Board have said that those who come forth would not be considered “hostile.” Apparently, there have been interested bidders but each has refrained so far because they would be perceived as hostile simply because the bid was unsolicited.  This is, of course, not theoretically possible, because the Special Committee in this case noted in their Announcement of Opinion that there was no need for a Direct Market Check mechanism, and instead shareholders might rely on the Indirect Market Check effect of the Tender Offer being 30 days long, allowing other interested parties to bid.  

  • The stock has traded above terms for a month. It could trade further above terms. Travis thinks the process has taken too long to get to here because this website should probably have been up weeks ago to be more effective, but it may encourage some media coverage of the issue – which is, despite its relative quietness, notable for the fact that four different investors have issued press releases. 
  • The Offer Price is CHEAP. Please see ENEOS To Steamroll Nippo (1881 JP) Minorities for more analysis. My analysis does not include un-developed or under-developed real estate which is held in the operating assets portion of the balance sheet. 
  • The Premium to terms is still quite small. And this is a big deal. It is an interesting and somewhat low-cost option. If the Tender Offer does not complete, Travis expects ENEOS and NIPPO would be open to other solutions to distribute the cash to shareholders. He is, on a risk-adjusted basis, bullish at ¥4,040/share.  The Tender Offer kicked off on Friday.

Links to Travis’ insight:
NIPPO (1881 JP) – Belated Cowbell, Worth Getting Involved
NIPPO (1881) Tender Offer to Launch – May Not Be A Done Deal

Toppan Forms (7862 JP)  (Mkt Cap: $1.3bn; Liquidity: $1mn)

In a parent-sub consolidation which should be no surprise to anyone, simultaneous to the earnings announcements, Toppan Printing (7911 JP) announced that it would launch a Tender Offer to buy out minorities in 60%-held subsidiary Toppan Forms at ¥1,550/share. The deal comes at a 51.7% premium and while not an all-time high, it is a significant jump on recent trading levels, and is reasonably close to book value. But that doesn’t mean it is the right price. 

  • This is a takeover which should have been expected.  It was cheap, illiquid-ish, low float, and it probably belonged with its parent. The Tender Offer by the parent company is at a 50+% premium, which looks really nice, but this stock had an adjusted (for securities held) EV of <1.5x 2023e EBITDA at the close today. On an adjusted EV basis, the takeover price is somewhere between 4-5x 2023e EBITDA and about 11-12x no debt ex-cash/securities 2023e PER. That is too low. 
  • But it was “fair.”  No market check. No majority of minority. No fairness opinion. TOB price is at the low end of the DCF range.  The process is not fair no matter how many times they say it, but investors in Japan know this already. The key is to make your objections known to SubsidiaryCo’s Board BEFORE the parent comes in to bid. But given Toppan Printing owns 60.7% and crossholders somewhere between 2% and 9%, it would be really difficult for this deal not to achieve the 5.9% it needs to get past the two-thirds ownership hurdle. 
  • Arbs can buy at a low spread. This would be difficult to break.  If you are a long-only investor who holds this…if you are bearish the market into year-end, continue to hold it and tender at the end. if you are bullish the market into year-end, sell quickly and re-allocate.

Australia-based medical equipment suppliers Paragon Care (PGC AU) and Quantum Health (QTM AU) announced today they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed according to which Paragon would acquire 100% of Quantum in an all-scrip Deal.  Quantum Shareholders will receive 0.243 Paragon Shares per Quantum Share. Following the completion of the Deal, Quantum will be delisted and Paragon will be the surviving company.  The Deal is conditional on the receipt of Quantum Shareholder approval and the completion date is expected to be in February 2022. Link to Janaghan Jeyakumar‘s insight: Paragon – Quantum: All Scrip Merger Could Be a Done Deal

Apparently, according to OK Corp., Kansai Super Market (9919 JP)‘s third-largest shareholder, at the EGM to approve the Kansai Super’s merger with two of H2O’s unlisted units. one shareholder abstained, but after the vote, was allowed to change this to for, and the vote, needing two-thirds got 66.68%. OK Corp has filed a petition with the Court for a preliminary injunction for the merger scheduled for 1 December based on improper procedure at the EGM. Travis has popcorn. Shocking Shenanigans at the Kansai Super EGM and OK Says Chotto Mattaaaa!!!

Hoshino Resorts Reit (3287 JP) (“HRR”) announced a follow-on equity offering after market close on 10th November 2021 to fund part of their recent property acquisition.  The primary offer quantity is 19,630 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 969 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥13.8bn (~US$120mn). HHR has a very poor track record when it comes to follow-on equity offerings. HHR seems significantly overvalued against other JREITs. In Hoshino Resorts REIT (3287 JP): Offering Seems Unexciting, Janaghan would avoid the offering. 

Brother Industries (6448 JP) announced a takeover of its TSE2 and Nagoya2-listed subsidiary Nissei Corp (6271 JP). This is a takeover which should have been expected.  It was cheap, illiquid, and one might not have been able to predict the timeline, but given these deals are occurring with some regularity, it would seem that this bet and others are OK bets. The problem one has is good target governance. That is lacking in most of these deals and this one is no exception. But this deal is done, and there is not much one can do about it except go nuclear (buy a big stake in the company at a higher price and make a lot of noise). Even then it would be almost impossible. The trade is a pure balance sheet risk arb trade. Link to Travis’ insight: Brother MBO/LBO of Nissei Corp (6271) – Another Too-Low Price Parent/Sub Takeout

Katakura Industries (3001 JP) announced on 8 November that KK Katakura – a private company 50/50 owned by the CEO and the Chairman – would launch a Tender Offer to take the company private in an MBO/MEBO at ¥2,150/share. For hard event people, Travis would wait until the “overbid premium” comes down a little. He could see a bump. Getting another ¥100 out of this given the LBO finance would seem easy. For those who see this as a Murakami target, he’d buy at ¥2250. If he buys and keeps the price there, it would be “easy” for the BUYERS to bump to that price. And he has ammunition, and he would only get involved if there was real room to gain. He would not jump in to buy 10% of a company for an extra ¥100 yen. Link to Travis’ insight: Activist Target Katakura Industries (3001) Subject to an MBO Takeout

A fund linked to Polaris Capital on Friday 12 November announced it would launch a Tender Offer to buy out specialty systematised construction contractor/lessor Space Value Holdings (1448 JP).  Sometime activist Aslead Capital and some of its funds own 24%. They have agreed to sell. The premium is not great, and comps go for more, but shareholder structure suggests this is “easy.” Link to Travis’ insight: Space Value Holdings (1448) LBO

STUBS

Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP) / Inpex Corp (1605 JP) 

When the Inpex buyback programme was announced the previous Friday, and the ToSTNeT-3 buyback was announced with the footnote that Japex intended to sell shares to the tune of ¥50bn, Travis wrote about the outlook post ToSTNeT-3 buyback for both companies in INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities – INPEX (1605 JP) and INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities – JAPEX (1662 JP)

  • In the piece on JAPEX, Travis noted that the combination of higher oil prices since the August announcement of expected losses this year, the price of crude and natgas was higher so the actual losses would likely be lower than forecast, and the sale of half JAPEX’ stake in INPEX would lead to a near-record amount of excess non-operating capital (net cash+securities, etc) against a sharp reduction in cash burn at its Canadian units, which were to be sold.  I recommended buying JAPEX suggesting the best way to apply that cash was a buyback. 
  • Sure enough, JAPEX announced a buyback. 3mm shares or 5.25% of shares out seems “small” but it is actually 15% of Real World Float. It is also 12-13 days of 1yr or 3yr ADV which means about 5% of ADV over a full year, which would be about 7-8% of “eligible volume.”
  • The stock is up sharply since the previous Friday’s close. Travis thinks there is more to go because JAPEX can spend an average of ¥2666/share; the move on JAPEX shares is a small move in the grand scheme of things. It is only a small blip so far.

(link to Travis’ insight: JAPEX Profit and BUYBACK – More To Go

Singtel (ST SP) /  Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)

SingTel announced a net profit of S$954mn in the 1H22 (Mar Y/E), an increase of 105% yoy. These earnings continue to highlight an improving business environment.  Amid improving earnings, the market is assigning S$6.7bn less for the unlisted ops since the beginning of the year. Plus you also have the monetisation of non-core assets together with other infrastructure assets up for sale. 

(link to my insight: SingTel (ST SP): Steep Discount Amid Strong First-Half Results

In my weekly StubWorld piece, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP), which was already trading with an extreme disconnect with 22%-held Oriental Land (4661 JP), is now even further out of whack; Doosan Corp (000150 KS) is trading rich to 40%-held Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction (034020 KS), although borrow is not cheap; and a new holding company structure for Microport Scientific (853 HK) following the recent listing of Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (2252 HK). Re: Keisei, I think what is possibly happening here is that a few RV funds lost money in October and are unwinding positions into year-end. 

SHARE CLASSIFICATION

BHP Group (BHP AU)  (Mkt Cap: $137bn; Liquidity: $265mn)

Back in August, BHP decided to launch a process to achieve unification of its two entities – BHP Group (BHP AU) (a.k.a. “BHP Limited”) and BHP Billiton (BLT LN) (a.k.a. “BHP PLC”). This was discussed by me in BHP Limited (BHP AU): DLC Reunification. Travis discussed the complicated mechanics of the approvals and flows in BHP DLC Unification – On Dirt-Diggers and Deckchairs the same day, and recommended to put the risk arb trade on when it is wide; SELL BHP: There would be sell flow so get ahead of it; SHORT BHP vs Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU): TRADE THE EVENT RANGE: Short BHP vs Rio then. Cover/switch direction near the end. Apart from the Rio trade, the other trades worked.

  • 7% annualised spread on the BHP unification trade seems somewhat tight as deal risk is not zero. This is effectively a Scheme Proposal which is solid but not yet binding, and shareholders are a question. 
  • There is a lot of BHP PLC to sell. Net selling pressure will exist for months. BHP PLC selling will, on a net basis, impact both lines.  One can look at this a bit like the Takeda/Shire deal of a couple years ago. There is a spread (which on a gross basis could be larger) and BHP PLC does not have to rise to meet BHP AU. It could be that BHP AU falls to meet BHP PLC. 
  • Travis likes being short BHP. He likes it a little less than before.  He thinks being short BHP PLC when it bounces to a tighter spread is a good way of doing this. Being short the BHP AU line implies more confidence in the deal getting past shareholders (which leads to more net selling by PLC holders). He also likes shorting BHP PLC vs Rio PLC – the risk outlook here is better than it was.

(link to Travis’ insight: BHP DLC Unification – Spread Narrower, Waiting on the Circular and Management Press)

M&A – US

51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) (Mkt Cap: $3.6bn; Liquidity: $25mn)

Just plain horrible. Following an indicative pre-market sell-off of 35%, 51job closed down 19.2%, and is now 20% adrift of the undisturbed price.  The news? As per 51job’s announcement: “that certain members of the buyer consortium that formed Garnet Faith Limited to acquire the Company … have been in consultation with Chinese regulators on recent regulatory changes in China that may be applicable to the Company and the Proposed Transaction. The consultation process by these buyer consortium members is currently ongoing and a clear timeline to its completion cannot be provided at this time.”

  • 51job.com is the leading recruitment website/platform in China. Shares rolled over in July as the regulatory oversight on internet platforms ensnared more sectors/companies.  Yet this latest announcement from 51job provides little new news to what was already known. Timing, admittedly, was not ideal, arriving shortly on the heels of last week’s announcement that funding for the Offer had progressed.  The significant price correction can ostensibly be put down to short-term investors piling into 51job on the financing news, then turning tail, exiting en-masse after the perceived financing head-fake.  
  •  I doubt the regulator is arbitrary. A platform for finding and facilitating employment appears to fall in lockstep with common prosperity. And this is not a third party taking over the company. Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) and Rick Yan control 52.4% of the company. And the other parties to the consortium are PE outfits run by Chinese individuals. Furthermore, the take-private transaction requires ~US$2.6bn, with the bulk of the financing with the Chinese banks largely orchestrated by Yan. Plus 51job has net cash of US$1.7bn. 
  • I was a buyer after the correction. The stock is below undisturbed, and the company is still the largest lion in the jungle. The regulatory burden always favours the large incumbent as it raises costs on new entrants and competitors and compliance scales with the customer base. And the stock, even without thinking about a deal, is cheap. The pressure on Chinese stocks in the US to go private or change listing venue by 2024 is still on.

EVENTS

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s plan to split itself into three units was, as we suggested, decidedly underwhelming. Link to Mio’s insight: Toshiba – Damp Squib Is Damp

TOPIX INCLUSIONS!

Japan-based medical devices and healthcare solutions provider PHC Holdings (6523 JP) was listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) on 14th October 2021.  It was kind of a disaster. The stock opened 4% off – at the stabilisation price – and 3 minutes later was down 14.4%. That said, when a company gets listed on the TSE First Section, it subsequently gets included in the TOPIX Index and as a result, TOPIX-tracking funds will have to purchase the stock during an Inclusion Event which presents interesting trading opportunities for active investors to generate sharp market-neutral returns in the space of few trading days. In TOPIX Inclusion: PHC Holdings (6523 JP), Janaghan takes a look at the timeline and the parameters of the Inclusion Event and the potential trading opportunities surrounding it. 

PAIRS

While both HUYA Inc (HUYA US) and Douyu International Holdings (DOYU US) failed to escape the downward pressure on Chinese tech stocks in the last quarter the latter noticeably outperformed, falling “just” 33% since our last insight vs. a 43% drop for Huya.  In Huya Vs. Douyu – Both Trading Near Net Cash but Buy the More Expensive One, Mio Kato would stay long Huya, short Douyu, and we feel risks for Douyu earnings could be slightly skewed to the downside.

M&A – EUROPE

Lord Rothermere has agreed to pay 255p a share for Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGT LN) plus debts, up 1.6% from an £810 million or 251p a share proposal first made in July. The deal will be financed with cash from the cash element from the special dividend. The deal is expected to close. Gross spread as of 10 November was 8.5%. Recommendation is long DMGT LN. Link to Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar‘s insight: RCL/DMGT: Package Value and Spread

The bid for alstria office reit-ag (AOX GR) was €19.5/share in cash, above expectations and the almost same level as Capital IQ consensus 22e NAV (€19.37/share). The offer has been well timed and taking advantage of the slow recovery in German offices. Brookfield increased its shareholding since bid rumours surfaced. The gross spread is c. 0% for a friendly deal highly likely to close, at the current offer price. Link to Jesus’ insight: RCL/DMGT: Package Value and Spread

M&A RISK ARB WEEKLY ROUND-UP

  • This insight provides a quick summary of gross/annualised (where possible) spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and how those spreads have changed over the last week; plus the next hard events over the coming weeks. I number 49, mostly firm, deals around the region.

INDEX REBALS

OTHER M&A & EVENT UPDATES

CCASS

My ongoing series flags large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves that are often outside normal market transactions.  These may be indicative of share pledges.  Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings. 

  • Often these moves can easily be explained – the placement of new shares, rights issue, movements subsequent to a takeover, lock-up expiry, amongst others. For those mentioned below, I could not find an obvious reason for the CCASS move.   

Name

% chg

Into

Out of

Golden Power (1783 HK)30.00%WealthChaoshang
Evergreen (1962 HK)29.15%UBSKingsway
Jiaxing Gas (9908 HK)11.60%CitiBocom
Amuse (8545 HK)11.36%EasySt Chart
Heng Hup (1891 HK)51.00%ShenwanOutside CCASS
Source: HKEx
  • The following large movement(s) concern recently listed companies, and therefore are (likely) lock-up related.

Name

% chg

Into

Out of

Ch General (2175 HK)21.48%FulbrightOutside CCASS
Beijing Capital Jiaye Proper (2210 HK) 20.64%CICCOutside CCASS
HC Env (2265 HK)17.27%First ShanghaiOutside CCASS
Source: HKEx

I listen to a bunch of music when writing insights. Here are a handful of tunes, old & new, that piqued my interest during the week: Falle Nioke & Ghost Culture’s Leywole, Radiohead’s Follow Me Around, Alex Gopher’s You, my baby, and I, Little Simz’s Woman.

What are you listening to? 

Enjoy your Sunday!


Harmonic Drive – Surprise Downward

By Mio Kato

  • HDS revised FY guidance down by 2.6% at the revenue line and 13.7% at the OP line.
  • The stock was already hit on Friday as a surprise MSCI deletion drove a 7.3% fall.
  • This is the second surprise downgrade in the sector and we are increasingly confident that we are passing through the cyclical turning point.  

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma