In today’s briefing:
- Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability
- Could the BoJ Be Saved?
- 2022 High Conviction – Recruit: More Downside Ahead with Normalisation of Recruitment Markets
- Pola Orbis: Pola Moves to Capture Travel Retail Demand as Air Travel Recovers
Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability
- An article this morning in the Yomiuri suggested JIC was bidding, even though they have not been in any “lists of 8 bidders” I have seen. The market yawned.
- An article this evening says bidders are offering “up to ¥7,000/share” but there is a range of pricing and conditions. Not surprising, but we know little.
- Shareholder structure matters. This has been event-y for a long time so I expect not many new buyers are ready to come in. This just shifts the range. And risk.
Could the BoJ Be Saved?
- Japan is clearly worried about a weaker JPY despite the BoJ’s bond market policy
- Could they be saved by external factors – namely a calming down or even reversal of rising US yields?
- Historical comparisons as well as developments in commodities and the economy suggests the answer could be yes
2022 High Conviction – Recruit: More Downside Ahead with Normalisation of Recruitment Markets
- Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) shares have declined 44.35% YTD as the company’s earnings have started normalising following easing off of Covid-19 conditions.
- 4QFY03/2022 results showed that the strong growth in earnings that the company experienced in FY03/2022 has started to weaken with normalisation of recruitment and staffing markets.
- With weakening earnings, we think there is further downside and Recruit will be a good short over the next few weeks.
Pola Orbis: Pola Moves to Capture Travel Retail Demand as Air Travel Recovers
- Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP) is expanding its Travel Retail presence in the region to capitalise on the surge in demand from the recovery of air travel.
- Inbound demand could also return to Japanese cosmetics through the reopening of Japan’s borders to tourists.
- The sector is yet to break out from the downtrend. Investors willing to get in early could do that with Pola Orbis with limited downside risk.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
