Daily BriefsMacro

Macro: China: Easing Underway…but Will It Move the Needle on Where It Counts? and more

In today’s briefing:

  • China: Easing Underway…but Will It Move the Needle on Where It Counts?
  • Indonesia: Fiscal Dynamics On A Solid Footing
  • The Week That Was in [email protected] – Indonesian Digital Banks, Singapore’s SPAC, and Thai Banks

China: Easing Underway…but Will It Move the Needle on Where It Counts?

By Nigel Chiang

  • Looking beyond today’s better-than-expected GDP data, China’s economy is facing swelling headwinds.
  • Consumer spending is weak, the property sector shakeout persists, and covid-related restrictions are beginning to cause supply chain problems.
  • More stimulus will be needed, today’s tepid monetary easing and other measures taken so far will not suffice.

Indonesia: Fiscal Dynamics On A Solid Footing

By Nicholas Chia

  • For 2021, the fiscal deficit is projected at 4.65% of GDP, or a full percentage point lower than the budgeted 5.7% of GDP, thanks to heftier commodity royalties.
  • An upside surprise to growth and inflation, and looming tax adjustments from April 2022 will guide the fiscal deficit down with revenues on a bounce.
  • Risks are twofold. First, parliament could backtrack on fiscal commitments. Second, there is a salient risk of an disorderly evolution of financial conditions because of BI’s debt purchases.

The Week That Was in [email protected] – Indonesian Digital Banks, Singapore’s SPAC, and Thai Banks

By Angus Mackintosh

  • The Week That Was in [email protected] is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
  • The past week saw insights on the rise of digital banks in Indonesia together with a look at Singapore Banks from Daniel Tabbush and Thai Banks from Country Group.
  • Sumeet Singh also looks at Singapore’s first SPAC listing and we discuss the changing the Buy Now Pay Later landscape together with Astra International (ASII IJ) car sales and more. 

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