Daily BriefsMacro

Macro: China: Easing Underway…but Will It Move the Needle on Where It Counts? and more

In today’s briefing:

  • China: Easing Underway…but Will It Move the Needle on Where It Counts?
  • Indonesia: Fiscal Dynamics On A Solid Footing
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Indonesian Digital Banks, Singapore’s SPAC, and Thai Banks

China: Easing Underway…but Will It Move the Needle on Where It Counts?

By Nigel Chiang

  • Looking beyond today’s better-than-expected GDP data, China’s economy is facing swelling headwinds.
  • Consumer spending is weak, the property sector shakeout persists, and covid-related restrictions are beginning to cause supply chain problems.
  • More stimulus will be needed, today’s tepid monetary easing and other measures taken so far will not suffice.

Indonesia: Fiscal Dynamics On A Solid Footing

By Nicholas Chia

  • For 2021, the fiscal deficit is projected at 4.65% of GDP, or a full percentage point lower than the budgeted 5.7% of GDP, thanks to heftier commodity royalties.
  • An upside surprise to growth and inflation, and looming tax adjustments from April 2022 will guide the fiscal deficit down with revenues on a bounce.
  • Risks are twofold. First, parliament could backtrack on fiscal commitments. Second, there is a salient risk of an disorderly evolution of financial conditions because of BI’s debt purchases.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Indonesian Digital Banks, Singapore’s SPAC, and Thai Banks

By Angus Mackintosh

  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
  • The past week saw insights on the rise of digital banks in Indonesia together with a look at Singapore Banks from Daniel Tabbush and Thai Banks from Country Group.
  • Sumeet Singh also looks at Singapore’s first SPAC listing and we discuss the changing the Buy Now Pay Later landscape together with Astra International (ASII IJ) car sales and more. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma