Daily BriefsMacro

Macro: India – Dark Times and more

By September 12, 2020 No Comments

In today’s briefing:

  • India – Dark Times
  • UK: GDP Recovery Lags and Languishes in Jul-20

India – Dark Times

By Sharmila Whelan

India is not technically in recession – defined as two back-to-back quarters of negative growth- and it plausible that one might be narrowly avoided. However any post-lockdown is likely to be weak at best and probably temporary. There is no getting away from the fact that the outlook is darkening. 

UK: GDP Recovery Lags and Languishes in Jul-20

By Phil Rush

  • UK GDP grew by 6.6% m-o-m in July, broadly matching the Consensus expectation. Nonetheless, activity is still 11.8% below February levels, with only 54% of the decline recovered. That is worrying when most sectors had reopened by then.
  • Retail reopened relatively early, so GDP’s recovery is naturally lagging by about a month. However, it is also languishing, with the lagged ratio of growth rates slowing from 0.7 to 0.47. Slowing so soon is disappointing for the demand outlook.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma