Daily BriefsMacro

Macro: QT Is Already Here And The 2022-23 Bear Market Is Now Well Underway and more

In today’s briefing:

  • QT Is Already Here And The 2022-23 Bear Market Is Now Well Underway
  • Can Asia Ex-China Continue to Be Resilient?
  • Egyptian Equities Are Approaching a Bottom
  • The Week That Was in [email protected] – Indonesia & CPO, ROTI, and Siam Cement

QT Is Already Here And The 2022-23 Bear Market Is Now Well Underway

By Michael J. Howell

  • Bear market underway in World equities and likely to see one-third peak to trough decline
  • Trigger is US Fed QT, but US Fed is NOT about to start QT. It has already been underway since Dec 15th 2021
  • Each $100 billion of QT, costs the SPX index around 60 points. Therefore expect S&P500 to test 3250, or 20% lower

Can Asia Ex-China Continue to Be Resilient?

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Asia ex-China has been relatively resilient this year despite the harsher global environment. 
  • We believe that the re-opening of the developing Asian economies ex-China will outweigh the headwinds, allowing this resilience to continue.
  • China is the single biggest risk: it can succeed in suppressing covid infections but only at a high economic cost. Overall, growth in developing Asia can remain relatively resilient

Egyptian Equities Are Approaching a Bottom

By Dylan Waller

  • Egyptian equities are beginning to enter a bottoming out phase, although there is likely more economic pain this year and no near-term stock market catalysts are present.
  • However, with MSCI Egypt trading at circa six times forward earnings, a near 50% discount to MSCI Emerging Markets, Egypt appears to be positioned very well in terms of relative value
  • Some of the major headwinds approaching include food/energy inflation, declining tourism, and Egypt’s entry into another IMF program this year

The Week That Was in [email protected] – Indonesia & CPO, ROTI, and Siam Cement

By Angus Mackintosh


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