Daily BriefsMacro

Macro: Spooky Chart Update IV and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Spooky Chart Update IV
  • Why Last Week May Have Been “The Bottom”
  • US-China Frictions Could Increase Near-Term Despite High Level Meetings
  • The Week That Was in [email protected] – Sea Ltd Lay-Offs, SCMA, and Kiatnakin Bank
  • Indonesia: Cabinet Reshuffle Motivated by Political Considerations

Spooky Chart Update IV

By Shyam Devani

  • This chart said stocks would fall at the start of this year
  • It now says we should step back from being too bearish
  • I am not going to ignore it at this juncture. Here we look at possible reasons why the stock market may see some relief

Why Last Week May Have Been “The Bottom”

By Cam Hui

  • Technical and valuation conditions are consistent with past major panic lows
  • The key risk is a lack of earnings downgrades in the face of growing recession risk.
  • Our base case scenario calls for a double or multiple bottoms in stock prices and a possible a double-dip recession.

US-China Frictions Could Increase Near-Term Despite High Level Meetings

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • There is certainly an action-reaction dynamic underway that, if poorly managed, could lead to unintended military incidents.
  • By threatening to cross red lines such as Taiwan for China and freedom of navigation for the US, frictions could worsen.
  • While provocative moves by each side are a concern, they are part of a bigger picture in which both sides are keen to avoid a clash.

The Week That Was in [email protected] – Sea Ltd Lay-Offs, SCMA, and Kiatnakin Bank

By Angus Mackintosh


Indonesia: Cabinet Reshuffle Motivated by Political Considerations

By Nicholas Chia

  • President Jokowi replaced two members of his cabinet, a move that is spurred mainly by political considerations.
  • The agriculture and trade ministers were replaced by a former TNI chief as well as the chairman of a political party that has joined the ruling coalition in parliament.
  • Going by the retention of certain ministers, the latest reshuffle has broader political implications for the 2024 presidential elections.

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