In today’s briefing:
- Spooky Chart Update IV
- Why Last Week May Have Been “The Bottom”
- US-China Frictions Could Increase Near-Term Despite High Level Meetings
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Sea Ltd Lay-Offs, SCMA, and Kiatnakin Bank
- Indonesia: Cabinet Reshuffle Motivated by Political Considerations
Spooky Chart Update IV
- This chart said stocks would fall at the start of this year
- It now says we should step back from being too bearish
- I am not going to ignore it at this juncture. Here we look at possible reasons why the stock market may see some relief
Why Last Week May Have Been “The Bottom”
- Technical and valuation conditions are consistent with past major panic lows
- The key risk is a lack of earnings downgrades in the face of growing recession risk.
- Our base case scenario calls for a double or multiple bottoms in stock prices and a possible a double-dip recession.
US-China Frictions Could Increase Near-Term Despite High Level Meetings
- There is certainly an action-reaction dynamic underway that, if poorly managed, could lead to unintended military incidents.
- By threatening to cross red lines such as Taiwan for China and freedom of navigation for the US, frictions could worsen.
- While provocative moves by each side are a concern, they are part of a bigger picture in which both sides are keen to avoid a clash.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Sea Ltd Lay-Offs, SCMA, and Kiatnakin Bank
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights on Sea Ltd on news of lay-offs, Thai Life IPO, Erajaya Swasembada, Thomson Medica, PT Surya Citra Media, and Kiatnakin Bank (KKP TB).
- We also saw a list of top ASEAN Picks from Dr Andrew Stotz highlighting his top 14 picks and an update on Carabao Group as a recovery proxy.
Indonesia: Cabinet Reshuffle Motivated by Political Considerations
- President Jokowi replaced two members of his cabinet, a move that is spurred mainly by political considerations.
- The agriculture and trade ministers were replaced by a former TNI chief as well as the chairman of a political party that has joined the ruling coalition in parliament.
- Going by the retention of certain ministers, the latest reshuffle has broader political implications for the 2024 presidential elections.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
