The week that was in [email protected] is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.
In Indonesia: More Rate Cuts to Spur Recovery After Recent Structural Reform, CrossASEAN Cheif Economist Prasenjit K. Basu discusses Indonesia’s economic outlook. With the current account in surplus in 2H 2020, and inflation below BI’s 2-4% target for 9 months, we expect the policy rate to decline by 50bp over the next half-year, spurring a strong above-consensus rebound to 6.7% real GDP growth. Structural reforms that have made the labor market more flexible and created an equity-funded vehicle to expedite infrastructure investment, will contribute to the economic acceleration, as will the spill-over from 2020’s unspent fiscal stimulus, and this year’s continued fiscal accommodation.
This is the second edition of our monthly trade ideas recap note in which we list our current trade recommendations and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 9 trade recommendations so far, of which 6 are in the money.