In today’s briefing:
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bukalapak’s Bank, Thailand Debt Restructurer, and Sea Ltd
- Alpha Bites: Pay India 5y Vs Receive Mexico 5y Local Rate
- EA: UR Beating the Fresh Hawks
- The Macro End Game
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bukalapak’s Bank, Thailand Debt Restructurer, and Sea Ltd
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The first week of the year saw Insights on Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) which took a stake in Allo Bank Indonesia plus Sea Ltd (SE US) as Tencent reduced its stake.
- In Thailand, Daniel Tabbush wrote on debt collector JMT Network Services (JMT TB) with a number of results pre-views including on Thai banks and Siam Cement (SCC TB).
Alpha Bites: Pay India 5y Vs Receive Mexico 5y Local Rate
- With rates in India vulnerable to a further correction in the US, I recommend paying India 5y vs receiving Mexico 5y rate in a beta-neutral ratio.
- Real rates in India are the lowest among major emerging countries, which along with rising inflation expectations and strong growth should pressure the RBI to raise rates soon.
- Mexico is appealing as a receiver against paying in India because the central bank is further along in its monetary tightening cycle as is evident from the high real rates.
EA: UR Beating the Fresh Hawks
- The EA cycle is performing surprisingly well in absolute and even relative terms, with a record pace and consistency of decline in its unemployment rate.
- Its change since 4Q19 is much nearer to Norway than the UK and US, let alone languishing Sweden. High vacancies match the recovery, implying it is demand-led.
- Further sustained progress in ending ingrained disinflationary expectations should allow the ECB to focus more on this cyclical story. The ECB may not wait long in 2023 before hiking.
The Macro End Game
- What’s the Macro End Game? In short, another great reset of our monetary system . We often talk about what markets are going to do next month, or this year.
- We like the feeling of being in control of asset class performances: after all, achieving consistent alpha year after year is has remained an elusive task for many.
- This obsession about short-term market performance puts investors at great risk of missing the forest for the trees
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
