Daily BriefsMacro

Macro: The Week that Was in [email protected] – Indonesian Dairy and more

By September 15, 2020 No Comments

In today’s briefing:

  • The Week that Was in [email protected] – Indonesian Dairy, Bank Central Asia, and Thai Picks
  • BoE: Preparing for a QE Extension in Nov-20

The Week that Was in [email protected] – Indonesian Dairy, Bank Central Asia, and Thai Picks

By Angus Mackintosh

The week that was in [email protected] is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.

Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week’s relevant discussions in [email protected]

Equity Bottom-Up Insights

In Ultrajaya Milk Ind & Trading (ULTJ IJ) – A Wholesome Performance, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia’s leading dairy player after a conversation with management. 

In PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) – ROTI’s Exit from Philippines a Positive,Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia’s largest mass-market bread player after its announcement it would exit the Philippines to focus on its Indonesian home market. 

In Sido Muncul (SIDO): Switch, Competitor and Split, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Indonesian traditional medicine player Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) with an update post it recently announced stock split. 

In Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Indonesia’s largest taxi operator.

In Small-Cap Diary: Singha Hotels, PTG Energy, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA reports back having visited two interesting companies recently, namely S Hotels & Resorts PCL (SHR TB) (Singha Hotels), and Ptg Energy Pcl (PTG TB), the country’s second-largest gas station operator.

In Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue Results: Looks Like a Scheme of Introduction, events specialist Travis Lundy revisits Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) in the wake of recent announcements. 

 

In Singapore Exchange – Taiwan A Standout In August,Brian Freitas circles back to SGX (SGX SP) post its monthly numbers.  

In JWD: Entering High Season with Growth Drivers from New Projects, our friends at Country Group revisit JWD Infologistics (JWD TB) in Thailand. 

In GLOBAL: Home-Improvement Player Eyes Opportunities in ASEAN,Country Group initiate coverage on Thai home improvement player Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB)

Sector and Thematic Insights

In Malaysia: Heineken Vs Carlsberg (Close), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits this pair trade, which he recommends to close. 

In Indonesia Banks – Vastly Differing Tales, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush compares tow Indonesian banks, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ), and finds two very different stories.

In The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 32,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA highlights 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to him based upon our FVMR Methodology. His research team constantly reviews the ASEAN markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.

In The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 30,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof. 

Credit Insights

In Sritex – Tear Sheet,Leonard Law, CFA presents his credit views view on Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) (Sritex). He views Sritex as “High Risk” on the LARA scale.


BoE: Preparing for a QE Extension in Nov-20

By Phil Rush

  • The BoE’s ongoing easing programme means it need not announce any policy change at this meeting. However, with insufficient room to continue purchases into 2021, Nov-20 is a “live” meeting, which the MPC is likely to warm up toward.
  • Renewed lockdown restrictions, Brexit risk, and low vacancies probably disappoint the MPC. Together with the disinflationary effect of GBP appreciation, the 2yr forward trade-off turns conventionally dovish, justifying more QE soon, in my view.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma