Daily BriefsMacro

Macro: The Week That Was in [email protected] – Indonesian Property and more

In today’s briefing:


The Week That Was in [email protected] – Indonesian Property, OLAM, and Digital Banks

By Angus Mackintosh

The week that was in [email protected] is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.

We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.

Macro Insights

In Indonesia: Tax Reforms Far From Perfect But Is Still A Step In The Right Direction, economist Nicholas Chia discusses Indonesia’s recent economic outlook after the country was badly hit by the second wave of the COVID-19 virus. 

In 12th Malaysia Plan: Lofty Aspirations, Lacklustre Capacity, Manu Bhaskaran discusses Malaysia’s political and economic outlook after the government released its budget plans.

Equity Bottom Up

In Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) – Primed for the Recovery, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh circles back to Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) after it released a solid set of IH2021 numbers.

In Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) – From the First to the Last Mile, Angus Mackintosh revisits Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) post its latest numbers and some interesting new alliances for Anteraja. 

In Olam: Lots of Corporate Activity in ’22/’23 to Unlock Significant Value for Temasek and Minorities, Nicolas Van Broekhoven returns to look at Olam International (OLAM SP) that has been a poor stock price performer on the SGX ever since it was attacked by short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. 

In DBS – Oil Prices Can Support Reversals, Daniel Tabbush reports back on DBS (DBS SP), the rising oil prices could benefit the bank far more than its peers, given its loan exposure to the oil and gas service sector.  

In Geo Energy: Indonesian Coal Market Beneficiary Trading at Distressed Multiple, Nicolas Van Broekhoven returns to look at Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) after the coal price is at stratospheric highs.

In Astro (ASTRO): Netflix Is Included Soon and High FCF Yield., Henry Soediarko discusses Astro Malaysia Holdings (ASTRO MK) after the company announcement that Astro subscribers can soon access Netflix Inc (NFLX US) through its Ultra and Ulti boxes. 

In SCB: Expect 3Q21 Earnings to Drop in Two Consecutive Quarter., Country Group revisits Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB TB) where it expects net profit to decrease in the 3Q2021 period due to the rising provision and economic lockdown.

In PTTEP: Solid Product Prices to Drive 3Q21 Earnings, Country Group revisits PTT E&P (PTTEP TB) ahead of results and expects it to post a solid net profit in the 3Q2021 period. 

In ADVANC: Expect 3Q21 Earnings to Drop Slightly QoQ, Country Group discusses Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) business outlook for 3Q2021 and 4Q2021 period. 

In PSL: Expect Core Earnings to Hit Another Decade High in 3Q21, Country Group expects Precious Shipping (PSL TB) to report core profit at Bt1,225m (+57%QoQ, recovery from a loss in 3Q20) in the 3Q21 period, the highest level in more than decade.

In DOHOME: Expect Solid 3Q21 Earnings as Limited Impact from Lockdown, Country Group upgrade Dohome PCL (DOHOME TB) rating to BUY, as they expect the company’s earnings to increase QoQ and YoY in 4Q2021, supported by demand from home renovations after floods, and YoY growth in construction materials demand on the back of solid SSSG.


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