Daily BriefsMacro

Macro: US 10 Year Yield – What to Watch and more

In today’s briefing:

  • US 10 Year Yield – What to Watch
  • Commodity Currencies and the JPY
  • FX Dashboard: LatAm FX Has Started Outperforming Against Asia FX
  • Rates 10y Dashboard: Positioning Supports Long End of Mexico

US 10 Year Yield – What to Watch

By Shyam Devani

The price or yield action on US 10 year Treasury is now beginning to reveal a loss of momentum and indicate at least a consolidation if not lower yields in the short term.

A move below 1.58% would be particularly telling.

What this, and the developing price action on Oil, tells us about equities is up for interpretation – though from our stand point the bias is to remain cautious on equities as we settle into the new month and quarter.


Commodity Currencies and the JPY

By Shyam Devani

Two weeks ago in a note titled Commodity Currencies and Their Warnings we examined their short term setups and potential declines (mainly against the USD)

This was largely on the back of a slip in the Oil price and long term levels being tested on major commodity indices. A lot of the indications in that note are still valid.

Since then, we see fresh indications that yields will likely slip too which brings some JPY crosses into focus. While there have not been any breaks as yet, key levels on AUDJPY and CADJPY should be watched closely.


FX Dashboard: LatAm FX Has Started Outperforming Against Asia FX

By Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

In this note, we go over the reasons that Latin American currencies have started outperforming against their Asian counterparts, a trend we expect to continue with a range-bound dollar.

The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.


Rates 10y Dashboard: Positioning Supports Long End of Mexico

By Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

We expect long-end rates in Mexico to perform well and show that the technical backdrop is supportive with the drop in foreign positions over the past year.

The attached file is a snapshot of EM 10y rates market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma