In today’s briefing:
- HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change
- HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi
- ASX200 Index Rebalance: PEXA to Replace Pendal
- SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro
- CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in June
- KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: JB Financial (175330 KS) To Replace Meritz F&M (000060 KS)
- CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) – A King for All Seasons
- Sabana REIT (SSREIT SP): Partial Offer from Volare
- Last Week In SPACE: Bank of Kyoto, WM Motors, Japanese Banks, Hong Kong Aerospace, CP ALL/MAKRO
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change
- We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
- We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
- There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.
HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?
- There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
- We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
- All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi
- End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.
- PEXA Group (PXA AU) replaces Pendal Group (PDL AU) in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 12 January.
- There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK).
ASX200 Index Rebalance: PEXA to Replace Pendal
- PEXA Group (PXA AU) will replace Pendal Group (PDL AU) in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close of trading on 12 January.
- Passive S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) trackers will receive PEXA Group (PXA AU) shares from their Link Administration (LNK AU) holdings and will have to buy the rest from the market.
- There will be selling in Pendal Group (PDL AU) from S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index trackers as well as from global trackers.
SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro
- A third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) replacing Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN).
- Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) could move lower in the short-term due to the public issue of shares but should find support from passive buying from local and global index trackers.
- Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) has underperformed most of its peers by a wide margin over the last year and the passive selling could provide an entry point.
CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in June
- Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see 15 potential index changes at the June rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.
- We estimate a one-way turnover of 2.35% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.57bn.
- The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) over the last six months, though there is some near-term deterioration.
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: JB Financial (175330 KS) To Replace Meritz F&M (000060 KS)
- Jb Financial Group (175330 KS) will replace Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance (000060 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 27 January.
- We estimate passive KOSPI2 INDEX trackers will need to buy 3.494m shares (KRW 36.34bn; 4.04 days of ADV) of Jb Financial Group (175330 KS) at the close on 27 January.
- DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) could be added to the KOSPI2 INDEX in April, replacing Meritz Securities (008560 KS) following its merger with Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS).
CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) – A King for All Seasons
- CP ALL is a unique and high-quality proxy for the recovery in domestic consumer demand plus increasing tourist arrivals, which should soon see a further boost from China.
- We would expect a strong finish to the year with an even stronger pickup in 2023 across convenience stores, Lotus supermarkets and hypermarkets, as well as Siam Makro cash-and-carry.
- CP ALL is a top growth pick in Thailand, with EPS expected to grow by +35% and 25% for FY2023E and FY2024E, with ongoing expansion and economic recovery.
Sabana REIT (SSREIT SP): Partial Offer from Volare
- Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) disclosed a partial offer from Volare to acquire a maximum of 109.6 million units at $0.465 per unit, a 9.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The partial offer is conditional on minimum acceptances representing 10.00% of outstanding units. Quarz Capital, the activist fund, says the offer is attractive.
- ESR Group (1821 HK), the sponsor, is unlikely to tender. Based on a proration of 13.54% and at the last close price of S$0.425, the breakeven price is S$0.420.
Last Week In SPACE: Bank of Kyoto, WM Motors, Japanese Banks, Hong Kong Aerospace, CP ALL/MAKRO
- Japanese banks are the hottest new thing but unless you think Bank of Kyoto is going to change its spots, it’s still best thought of as a range trade.
- WM Motors opts for a backdoor listing via merging with WE Solutions Limited (860 HK). There’s probably a good reason for doing so.
- You pay for the liquidity of Japanese banks by paying a higher PBR against not as much improvement in ROE. That’s life.
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