In today’s briefing:
- MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining
- [Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
- MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar
- MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes
- MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs
- [Quiddity Index] MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
- Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
- Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
- Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao
- MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m
MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining
- There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
- Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
- The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
- The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
- There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025.
- We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%.
MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar
- Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
- Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
- The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.
MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes
- Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
- Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
- There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs
- There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
- The MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy index represents the performance of the biggest and the most liquid companies in the Uranium and Nuclear industries.
- Cgn Mining (1164 HK) will be an ADD and Endesa SA (ELE SM) will be a DELETE in June 2025.
- There are also some big capping flows so we expect a one-way flow of US$227mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 15.7%.
Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
- Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK) opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
- The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
- Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings.
Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
- A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
- With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
- Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.
Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao
- Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
- Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
- Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m
- Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) will be deleted from the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) after the close on 20 June.
- The two deletions, capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.03% at the rebalance. That leads to a round-trip trade of A$294m.
- Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is also a deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index at the same time and there will be more passive selling from those trackers.
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