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Most Read: Hansoh Pharmaceutical, PropertyGuru , Krafton Inc, Alibaba Group, Invesco Office J Reit and more

In today’s briefing:

  • As The Dust Settles – Potential Index Changes to the FTSE China 50/A50 & HSCEI
  • PropertyGuru/Bridgetown 2 SPAC Listing/Merger – Second Time Lucky – Some Food for Thought
  • Krafton Bookbuilding: A Quick Recap of Last Day Craziness
  • Few Points to Consider Before Bottom Fishing Chinese Tech
  • Invesco Real Estate Deal for Invesco Office (3298) Successful – Now For the Aftermath

As The Dust Settles – Potential Index Changes to the FTSE China 50/A50 & HSCEI

By Brian Freitas

As regulations have changed in China, and as the market positions for regulations that could be changed in China, the fallout has resulted in markets selling off with a few sectors firmly in the crosshairs.

What started off with the ‘three red lines’ for real estate companies, the pulled IPO of Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) in November 2020 and regulating monopolies in big-tech has spread to the online education industry, food delivery industry, property service companies and the market is bracing for regulation of the medical and pharmaceutical industry.

The rampant selling of stocks that are affected by the regulations or could be affected will have an impact on the upcoming September index rebalances for the FTSE China 50 Index and FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX) and the December rebalance for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).

In addition, there will be a lot more mainland China companies that will list in Hong Kong since they will not need to (or will find it easier to) get approval from the Cyberspace Administration of China. That will also have implications for these indices.

In this Insight, we look at the potential changes to the FTSE China 50, FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in the upcoming reviews based on the close of trading on 27 July.

PropertyGuru/Bridgetown 2 SPAC Listing/Merger – Second Time Lucky – Some Food for Thought

By Sumeet Singh

PropertyGuru and Bridgetown 2 announced, on 23rd Jul 2021, that they have entered into a business combination agreement which will see PropertyGuru go public in the US. The transaction will value PropertyGuru at an EV of US$1.35bn and equity value of US$1.78bn.

We have looked at the company’s prior listing attempt when it tried to list in Australia in 2019. In this note, we will comment on the current listing arrangement.

Link to our previous notes:

Krafton Bookbuilding: A Quick Recap of Last Day Craziness

By Sanghyun Park

The last day of Krafton’s bookbuilding? Well, it was really a crazy day.

A suspicious rumor circulated at noon yesterday

First of all, at noon yesterday, a rumor circulated among local institutions through the messenger mainly used by institutions.

Previously, Yahoo Messenger was the main medium for circulating all sorts of rumors and stories between local institutional investors. But after the Yahoo Messenger service was terminated, NateOn is mainly used now.

The content of this rumor was somewhat provocative. The rumor said that the bankers are currently holding an emergency meeting due to the low competition rate for institutional subscriptions in the Krafton bookbuilding.

When Mirae Asset Securities learned that this rumor was circulating through NateOn, it immediately denied it, which led to an unusual situation where a banker updated the bookbuilding progress even before bookbuilding was closed.

In fact, Mirae Asset explained to local institutions yesterday afternoon that this Krafton bookbuilding was significantly more positive than initially expected and that the rumor of holding an emergency meeting due to the disastrous results simply was not true.

However, it is said that this rumor has caused confusion among some local institutions and has had some effect on the institutional subscription rate on the last day.

Few Points to Consider Before Bottom Fishing Chinese Tech

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

After trading sideways during May/June 2021, bulls got excited as Alibaba Group (9988 HK) rallied by 10% in the last week of June to $229.4 per share. Unfortunately, the joy was cut short, as Xi Jinping’s government went back on the offence with a broadened crackdown on tech platforms, especially the US-listed Chinese tech companies like the recent ride-sharing IPO DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US). As a result, Alibaba’s share price dropped 15% to a new 52 week low. Before the dust settled the Chinese government introduced reforms to private education companies, preventing them from making profits from the after-school tutoring businesses.

We believe all of these interventions are messages about the direction of the government policy over the next few years and the government’s effort to bring equality through preventing monopolistic behaviour and address cybersecurity, data collection and privacy concerns could be broader policies of Xi Jinping’s government as the Chinese economy enters a new era of growth.

New economy stocks like Alibaba, Tencent, Vipshop and JD.com have never gone through a period of time that’s even remotely similar to the time frame it is about to go through in the next few years.

Therefore, we think bottom fishing Chinese e-commerce stocks during this regulatory crackdown and economic policy transition could be of high risk unless they get to a point where they are bargains on price to book multiples.

In this insight, we discuss some important points to make a note of, if you are considering bottom fishing Alibaba, one of the safest Chinese tech stocks in the market.

Invesco Real Estate Deal for Invesco Office (3298) Successful – Now For the Aftermath

By Travis Lundy

The bid by the Invesco parent company (Invesco Real Estate and affiliates) for Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) turned out successful, and the bidders gained 5,727,676 units out of the 8,802,650 units out in the float. They now own 65.07% (having started with 6%) so this will end up going to an EGM.

As described in the original Notice concerning the Statement of Opinion (Support) on Tender Offer by Invesco Group released by IOR on 17 June and in line with my earlier insights, there will be an EGM which will aim to squeeze out minorities. That would theoretically require a two-thirds vote to change the Articles of Incorporation. 

The key date is 31 October 2021 because that is the end of the current (15th) fiscal period. The buyer should try to get the squeezeout accomplished by the end of that period, and if possible, to push it onward to a new fund on or before that date which can be declared to be distributed so that the tax conduit remains in place. 

The language in the Opinion says… 

Additionally, the Tender Offerors intend to request the Investment Corporation to convene an extraordinary unitholders’ meeting before the end of October 2021, which is the end of the 15th fiscal period of the Investment Corporation (meaning the last day of the fiscal period, hereinafter the same), and amend its articles of incorporation to change the end of the 15th fiscal period from October 31, 2021 to April 30, 2022.

There is separate language which says there will be no more dividends for the period ended 31 October 2021. Investors who hold on to the other 34.93% are now long a thing which will not earn anything in future for them. 

Who still owns units? What does that mean? Is there an arb? Are there index trades? 

The answers to this and more below the fold. 

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