In today’s briefing:
- FTSE All-World/All-Cap Index Rebalance Preview: Potential IPO Inclusions in June
- Now Link Admin Takes A Bath – Time To Buy
- ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO – Back for Another Round
- Woodside/BHP And the Timing Of The Trade Flows Vs Peers
- Link’s Shares Collapse as Worries of Buyer’s Remorse Sets In
FTSE All-World/All-Cap Index Rebalance Preview: Potential IPO Inclusions in June
- We forecast 8 potential inclusions to the All-World Index and 11 potential inclusions to the All-Cap Index at the FTSE June QIR. Most are high probability inclusions.
- LG Energy Solution (373220 KS), Mitratel (MTEL IJ), Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN), Kakao Pay (377300 KS) and FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN) are expected to have the largest passive inflows.
- Local institutions have been selling LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) and Kakao Pay (377300 KS) over the last few weeks while retail investors have been buyers.
Now Link Admin Takes A Bath – Time To Buy
- Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) cratered this morning ahead of a pause in trading.
- Link said it is unaware of the reason for the decline; however, the unfortunate timing of the ACCC delay and the MAC disconnect between Offeror and Target are not helping.
- Break price fair value has emerged. Separately, Link is coming up “cheap” versus its holding in PEXA Group (PXA AU).
ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO – Back for Another Round
- On 5th May 2022, Thai Beverage announced that BeerCo will resume its Proposed Spin-off Listing. This time the company is aiming to raise less than US$1bn, as per media reports.
- We have looked at various aspects of the deal earlier, as the company had tried to spin-off BeerCo in 2021 as well before finally calling it off in April 2021.
- In this note, we talk about the recent updates for BeerCo.
Woodside/BHP And the Timing Of The Trade Flows Vs Peers
- BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) announced a merger of BHP Petroleum with Woodside late last year, to be implemented in Q2 2022
- The vote is in a week, and BHP is expected to trade ex- WPL share spinoff on 24 May 2022, with delivery a week later.
- The trade so far has worked well, and there has been a slight additive flow pattern in the last several days. It is worth thinking closely about timing.
Link’s Shares Collapse as Worries of Buyer’s Remorse Sets In
- Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) claims to be not aware of any reason for today’s -15% share collapse. The market seems nervy that DND will exhibit buyer’s remorse.
- The scheme consideration is now 2.6x DND’s market cap. The ACCC delayed review and the contract renewal MAC clause could be DND’s get-out-of-jail-free card for a lower price/walk-away.
- Our “deal-break” SoTP valuation suggests a valuation of A$4.24 per share, which is broadly in line with the last close price. The next catalyst is DND’s results tomorrow.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
