Daily BriefsMost Read

Most Read: Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd., Samsung Electronics, Japan Post Holdings, Z Energy Ltd, Oyo and more

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Nov 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: On Your Marks, Get Set…
  • Samsung Founding Family’s Stake Sale: Impact on SamE Share Buyback Vs. Special Dividend
  • ECM Weekly (10th October 2021) – Japan Post, MicroPort Medbot, MicroTech, FWD, Medbanks, 4Paradigm
  • Z Energy (ZEL NZ) Enters Into Scheme With Ampol
  • Oyo IPO: Flying Blind

MSCI Nov 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: On Your Marks, Get Set…

By Brian Freitas

MSCI is scheduled to announce the results of the November 2021 Semi Annual Index Review (SAIR) on 12 November (Asia time) with the changes implemented after the close of trading on 30 November.

The review period for price cut-off will run from 18-29 October, so we have just a week more of trading before we have a better idea of what the changes could be.

Stocks with the largest estimated passive inflows are Mitsui Osk Lines (9104 JP)Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP), Ememory Technology (3529 TT)Godrej Properties (GPL IN), Srf Ltd (SRF IN), Parade Technologies (4966 TT), Open House (3288 JP), IDP Education (IEL AU) and Krafton Inc (259960 KS).

Stocks with the largest estimated passive outflows are United Urban Investment (8960 JP), Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP), Casio Computer (6952 JP), A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ), Stanley Electric (6923 JP), Tohoku Electric Power Co (9506 JP), Nh Foods Ltd (2282 JP), Toho Gas Co Ltd (9533 JP), Yamada Denki (9831 JP), AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU), Pigeon Corp (7956 JP) and NSK Ltd (6471 JP).

Stocks that are expected to have the largest impact (in terms of ADV) from passive buying are Voltronic Power Technology (6409 TT), Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP), Inari Amertron (INRI MK), CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK), Open House (3288 JP), AC Energy Corp (ACEN PM), IDP Education (IEL AU), Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), Parade Technologies (4966 TT) and Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN).

Stocks that are expected to have the largest impact (in terms of ADV) from passive selling are MCB Bank Ltd (MCB PA), A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ), Shenzhen Investment (604 HK), United Urban Investment (8960 JP), Lucky Cement (LUCK PA), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK), Toho Gas Co Ltd (9533 JP), China Everbright (165 HK), Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN), China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320 HK) and Habib Bank Ltd (HBL PA).

Recent listings that could be added to the MSCI Standard index are Krafton Inc (259960 KS)Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM) and Zomato (ZOMATO IN).


Samsung Founding Family’s Stake Sale: Impact on SamE Share Buyback Vs. Special Dividend

By Sanghyun Park

Below are the details of the disposal trust agreement that Samsung’s Lee family members newly signed with the trust institution.

Disposal trust contractLee Bu-jin (daughter)Lee Seo-hyun (daughter)Hong Ra-hee (spouse)
CompanySamsung SDSSamsung Life InsuranceSamsung SDSSamsung Electronics
Ticker018260032830018260005930
Disposition trust amount (shares)1,509,4303,459,4901,509,43019,941,860
% of the shares out1.95%1.73%1.95%0.33%
: Value (at the last close)₩0.24T₩0.25T₩0.24T₩1.43T
Trust institutionKB BankKB BankKB BankKB Bank
Contract date2021. 10. 052021. 10. 052021. 10. 052021. 10. 05
Contract ends2022. 04. 252022. 04. 252022. 04. 252022. 04. 25
Disposal deadlineN/A2021. 12. 24N/AN/A
PurposeFor inheritance tax paymentFor inheritance tax paymentFor inheritance tax paymentFor inheritance tax payment
Source: KRX KIND

Key takeaways

  • All the family members, except Lee Jae-yong, disclosed they had newly signed a disposal trust agreement on the same date (October 5) with the same trust institution, KB Bank.
  • However, all of these regulatory filings were published after the market closed last Friday. That is, the market only found it out late Friday, so whatever impact will likely be reflected in the price next trading day, which is next Tuesday.
  • All four trust contracts expire on April 25 next year. However, it does not necessarily mean that the deadline for the stake sale is April 25.
  • Only Samsung Life Insurance disclosed the deadline for sale to be December 24 of this year. But it strongly suggests that this December 24 will likely be the deadline for the other trust contrasts as well.
  • All four trust contracts clearly stated that the purpose was to pay inheritance tax.

ECM Weekly (10th October 2021) – Japan Post, MicroPort Medbot, MicroTech, FWD, Medbanks, 4Paradigm

By Zhen Zhou, Toh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Events next week:

ECM activity is certainly starting to heat up in Asia Pacific. In particular, Japan has had a steady stream of large placements. This week Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) was the center of attention as plans of the Japanese government selldown is slated to open this Monday, and price on the 25th of October.  The selldown has been well-flagged and it will be a quasi clean-up. We revisited Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) just before its pricing and so far, Hulic’s share price has been holding up above its deal price. 

Back to IPOs, in Hong Kong, MicroTech Medical Hangzhou (2235 HK) launched its bookbuild on Wednesday and it will close this coming Monday. The company’s listing debut is on 19th October. We think valuation looks full despite the strong cornerstone line-up.

We initiated on IPOs in the pipeline, Medbanks Network Technology (1690522D CH), an healthcare service provider with an oncology and pharmacy tilt,  and 4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. 

We also shared our thoughts on valuation of Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (MMG HK), which is set to capture significant market share in China’s laparoscopic robotic surgical market.

In the U.S, FWD Group Holdings (FWD US) has been doing its rounds, meeting investors. We took a closer look at how the company compares to regional insurance competitors and share our thoughts on its valuation.

Last, but not least, tearsheets for newly filed IPOs this week:

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 73.8% for IPOs and 67.8% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings this week

  • Green Tea Group (Hong Kong, US$200m, refiled)
  • Farm Fresh (Indonesia, US$125m)

News on Upcoming IPOs

Hong Kong/China

US/China ADR

India

Japan/Korea

Others

Others

Analysis on Upcoming IPOs

NameInsight
Hong Kong
4Paradigm

4Paradigm (第四范式智能) Pre-IPO – Stupendous Growth but Needs Better Disclosure of Certain Data 

APM Monaco

APM Monaco Pre-IPO – China’s Resilience Shines 

Airdoc

Beijing Airdoc (北京鹰瞳科技) Pre-IPO – A Niche Field with Merits but Can It Sell? 

Anjuke

Anjuke Pre-IPO – Mixed (Positive and Negative) Developments 

Ambio

AmbioPharm (昂博制药) Pre-IPO: Peptide CDMO Leader Turning Licensor 

Biel Crystal

Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO – Cash Flow Generative Business but Underlying Trend Is Worrying 

Biel Crystal

Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO – Industry Landscape & Peer Comparison –  Auto Is the Wildcard 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: How Has It Done in 1H? 

ByteDance

ByteDance: The Unlisted Company’s Video Apps Leading the Market and Threatening Internet Giants 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO – Globally the Most Downloaded App for Jan 2020 Driven by India 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Global Ambition Meets Regulatory Challenges 

Cloud Village

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO – Mixed PHIP Update, Updated Thoughts on Valuation 

Cloud Village

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation 

Cloud Village

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO – Tencent Music Peer Comp, Regulatory Impact 

Cloud Village

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO – Was in the Slow Stream, Playing Catch-Up 

Edda 

EDDA Healthcare Pre-IPO – RoboDoc – Has Been Around for a While but Is Just Getting the Robo Going 

Dingdang

Dingdang Health Tech (叮当健康) Pre-IPO – Impressive Growth but Not Without Concerns 

Intco Med

Intco Medical (英科医疗) A+H: From China No.1 to Global No. 1 

Imeik

Imeik Tech (爱美客) A/H Pre-IPO – Dermal Filler Leader Capitalizing on Its Valuation 

Jenscare

Jenscare (宁波健世科技) Pre-IPO: Differentiated Heart Valve Portfolio 

Medbanks

Medbanks (思派健康) Pre-IPO – Caught a Lucky Break 

MicroPort Medbot

MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO – RoboDoc – Pre-Revenue, Has a Large Competitor but a Large Market as Well 

NewMed

NewMed (纽脉医疗) Pre-IPO: Uphill Battle for TAVR but Leads the TMVR 

Neusoft Xikang

Neusoft Xikang (东软熙康) Pre-IPO: A Long Way to Profit 

Neusoft Med

Neusoft Medical Systems (东软医疗系统) Pre-IPO: Unattractive Fundamentals 

WeDoctor WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO -App Walk Through – The Online Medical Directory and More 
WeDoctor WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO – A More Focused Online Medical Svc Provider than Ping An Good Doctor 
WeDoctor We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Picking Its Battles Wisely 
WeDoctor We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO – Forecasts, Early Thoughts on Valuation, and Acquisition Gripes 
Weilong Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth, Strong Backers 
Weilong Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Spicy Valuation 
WM Tech WM Tech Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison and Pre-IPO Valuation – Some Signs of Advantage 
WM Tech WM Tech Pre-IPO – Digitalization Efforts Coming Through but Not Well Substantiated 
India
Aadhar Housing Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Decent past Growth but Comes with Weird Disclosures 
Aditya AMC Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Pre-IPO – Strong Profit Growth but It’s Losing Market Share 
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotel

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

Bajaj En

Bajaj Energy Pre-IPO – Supposed to Deliver Steady Performance if Only Its Sole Client Would Let It 

Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
ESAF SFB ESAF Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO – Growing Fast but Remains Highly Dependant on a Related Party 
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
Emami Cem Emami Cement Pre-IPO – Still in Ramp Up Phase but Shares Pledge Might Lead to an Early IPO 
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some

LIC

Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO – Early Take on India’s Largest IPO 
Penna Cem Penna Cement – Aggressive Expansion Plans Even Though Past Performance Has Been Tepid 
PNB MetPNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food

Z Energy (ZEL NZ) Enters Into Scheme With Ampol

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 23 August, Kiwi fuel distributor Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ) announced it had received a non-binding indicative acquisition proposal from Ampol (ALD AU). The Offer of NZ$3.78/share, by way of a Scheme, was a 22% premium to the last closing price, although in Ampol’s separate announcement, the Offer price was a 35% premium to the last close on the 26 July, the day prior to the first press speculation of corporate activity. 

Ampol was granted four weeks of exclusive due diligence. On the 27 September, the DD was extended by a further two weeks. There were rumours in the local press, such as the New Zealand Sun, that Ampol may up its bid to NZ$4/share.

The New News

ZEL and Ampol have now announced a binding Scheme of Arrangement under which ZEL shareholders would receive $3.78/share plus NZ$0.05/share in dividends – or NZ$3.83/share all-in. ZEL shareholders will also be entitled to a further NZ$0.10/share in dividends if the takeover is not completed by the end of March.

The proposal remains subject to approvals from ZEL’s shareholders, and both the New Zealand Commerce Commission and the New Zealand Overseas Investment Office. It is also conditional on the transition of the Marsden Point fuel refinery to an import-only terminal.

Ampol has committed to a full divestment of its Gull service stations in New Zealand to address potential competition issues.

This looks done. OIO approval will likely be the biggest sticking point, although Ampol is already in the good books after receiving OIO approval back in 2017 in its acquisition of Gull.

The shareholder meeting to vote on the Scheme is expected to be held early in 2022 with the transaction expected to be wrapped up in the 1H22. 


Oyo IPO: Flying Blind

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Indian hospitality start-up, Oyo (1698548D IN) is a digital platform connecting over 157,000 storefronts (hotels and homestays) with consumers. The company is trying to ride the Indian IPO wave with a $1.1bn IPO in India.

Oyo is 46.6% owned by the Softbank Vision Fund and it is another example of a typical Softbank Investment like The We Company (WeWork) (WE US) and Uber (UBER US). Oyo’s old business model was a complete disaster, and it almost ran the company into the ground. The new business model makes Oyo look more like a marketplace for lodging. Despite changes to the business model, we continue to have concerns as Oyo could be neither growth nor profits business under its new business model.


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