In today’s briefing:
- Japan Post Bank – Estimating Foreign Ownership and Deal Flowback
- HYBE Gives Up the M&A Fight for SM Entertainment: Impact on Kakao’s Tender Offer
- Japan Post Bank Placement – Still Misbehaving – Post-Pricing Performance of Some More Deals
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Offering Price Decided; Buyback & Passive Flow Coming Up
- STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in June (Possibly)
- MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact
- ThaiBev To Take Oishi Group Private
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): JPY1,131 Offer Price; Updated Playbook
- SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO – It Was All Good, till Friday
- Halcyon Agri’s Offer: IFA Says Fair. Independent Directors Say Accept
Japan Post Bank – Estimating Foreign Ownership and Deal Flowback
- The word floating around late Friday as books closed was that foreigners had bid strongly. More than the entire Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) offering size in fact.
- The offering is an interesting problem, as discussed before. Different people are going to buy it for different reasons.
- This insight looks at the breakdown of ratios and the resultant foreign ownership, along with post-offer supply/demand balance.
HYBE Gives Up the M&A Fight for SM Entertainment: Impact on Kakao’s Tender Offer
- On 12 March, HYBE (352820 KS) announced that it is no longer pursuing S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) in an M&A battle with Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
- This will result in a very high probability of Kakao winning the M&A battle of SM Entertainment.
- Many institutional investors are likely to have pushed back on HYBE’s capital raising efforts, which seems to have been the clincher of HYBE backing out of this M&A for SM.
Japan Post Bank Placement – Still Misbehaving – Post-Pricing Performance of Some More Deals
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) aims to sell around US$9bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third.
- We have looked at the deal in our previous notes, Japan Post Bank Placement – Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback and Japan Post Bank Placement – Misbehaving.
- In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a look at the post pricing performance of a few more deals.
Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Offering Price Decided; Buyback & Passive Flow Coming Up
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced that the offering price has been set at JPY 1131/share, a 2.08% discount to the closing price. Settlement is on 20 March.
- The buyback will run from 22 March to 12 May and at last prices will mop up 1.85% of shares outstanding or 4.62% of post-offering float.
- In the short-term, we expect buying from Topix (TPX INDEX), MSCI and other global trackers to support the stock price.
STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in June (Possibly)
- The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 26 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 9 June.
- We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in two changes to the index.
- One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 1,442m. The impact on the deletions will be larger than that on the inclusions.
MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact
- The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
- The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.
ThaiBev To Take Oishi Group Private
- Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is proposing to take 79.66%-held Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) private by a voluntary Delisting Offer.
- The Offer price is THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close.
- This Delisting Offer requires a shareholder vote. Payment may occur sometime in August.
Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): JPY1,131 Offer Price; Updated Playbook
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) priced its offer at JPY1,131, a discount of 2.1% to the last close. JPB’s on-market buyback period runs from 22 March to 12 May.
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering suggests that the share price will have support to trade above the offer price at delivery date and the on-market buyback period.
- The offer price’s forward P/B of 0.45x and yield of 4.42% are attractive vs peers. JPB’s price ratio at the offer price is undemanding vs TOPIX Banks ETF and JPH.
SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO – It Was All Good, till Friday
- SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) (SSNB) is looking to raise around US$390m in its second listing attempt.
- SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.
- In this note, we talk about implied valuations in the IPO price range
Halcyon Agri’s Offer: IFA Says Fair. Independent Directors Say Accept
- Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) has issued the circular in response to China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)‘s conditional MGO.
- The IFA reckons the Offer is fair and reasonable. The Independent Directors recommend that shareholders accept the Offer.
- The first close is the 24 March. Hainan Rubber is under no obligation to extend the Offer beyond this date.
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