In today’s briefing:
- Crypto Weekly: Historical Corrections, Fund Performance, and NFT Adoptions
- SK Square Is Victim of LG Energy IPO-Triggered Market Flow Imbalance, Then Rebound Timing?
- 1H22 Obex Research Long Portfolio
- Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk
- Square Enix – WAGMI
Crypto Weekly: Historical Corrections, Fund Performance, and NFT Adoptions
- In this weekly, we look at the macro where the recent selldown is well within the historical performance of the asset class
- Despite the end year correction, crypto funds have returned 178% in 2021 based on Eurekahedge which is leading to significant new launches in 2022
- Meanwhile, NFTs continue to make headlines as Eminem spent half a million on a BAYC jpeg and a South Korean presidential hopeful taps NFTs to raise campaign funds
SK Square Is Victim of LG Energy IPO-Triggered Market Flow Imbalance, Then Rebound Timing?
- SK Square’s discount to NAV is reaching 68%, pretty close to the deepest end of the local peers.
- The cause of this price correction can be seen as the collapse of the overall market flow balance due to the LG Energy IPO.
- Entry timing for MSCI float-rate increase momentum is early February.
1H22 Obex Research Long Portfolio
- With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead? Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.
- We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)
- Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.
Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk
- We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX macro trendline support.
- NDX long term trendline make or break support lies at 15,300. We expect a break in later Q1 but if broken now it will bring forward a negative risk cycle.
- Our macro 10yr yield rise to the 2%+ region for a top correlated with a peak in the equity cycle in late Q1. Rate sensitive ration undercurrents.
Square Enix – WAGMI
- Blockchain games are gaining popularity and traction with new players. There are now over 1.4m people playing blockchain games daily
- The economics of blockchain gaming and NFT is driving a flood of new investment into the space, with $4b committed by VCs in 2021. This year will be significantly higher
- Square Enix understands that blockchain games are here to stay despite opposition from “legacy fans.” We expect further announcements on blockchain gaming to drive the stock
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
