SHORT TENURE – Since 1979 the average prime ministerial tenure in Japan has been 750 days. Excluding the three longest-serving Prime Ministers of the last forty years – Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2 – the average is 494 days. The equity market has favoured long-serving Liberal Democratic Party government (marked in light green above) and disliked periods of coalition or opposition (野党 yatō) government and also tenures of less than eighteen months.
PM SUGA – Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide succeeded former Prime Minister Abe on 16th September the latter having stepped down for health reasons. Suga had served as Chief Cabinet Secretary (内閣官房長官, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan) for all of Abe’s premiership. The continuity offered by Suga’s elevation provides Japan with the prospect of an extended period of political stability. From his policy statements made during the brief prime-ministerial election campaign, Suga has bold aims for challenging Japan’s economic and social ills. Given his previous role and mastery of the balance between political necessities and bureaucratic realities, the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy and stock market.
In the DETAIL below, we shall cover the following topics:-
I: SUGA’s BACKGROUND & POLITICAL CAREER
II: POLICY PRIORITIES
Defence & Foreign Policy
The Digital Agency
Birth-rate and Fertility Treatment
Regional Revitalisation & Regional Bank Reform
Carbon Neutrality & A Nuclear Renaissance
III: SUGA STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
WHAT’S ORIGINAL? – This Insight reviews the implications of PM Suga’s policy platform for specific sectors and stocks in the Japanse equity market and concludes with five long and five short recommendations for large-cap growth and value-orientated portfolios.
“Self-help, mutual help, public help, and “kizuna” (bonds) is our vision for society. With that in mind, we firmly believe, overcoming various issues, such as regional revitalization and the shrinking population, as well as the declining birth-rate and aging society, will create dynamism in Japan. To this end, we will meet the people’s expectations by giving birth to a “Cabinet that works for the People,” which gives its all to advance regulatory reforms without being constrained by the vested interests of the stakeholders, tearing down bureaucratic sectionalism and the notorious habit of following past precedents.
Statement of the Prime Minister
September 16th, 2020
LightStream Research • ‘Quantamental’ Japan Specialist • (Opens in a new window) ⧉