Event-Driven Archives | Page 13 of 186 | Smartkarma

In March 2022, Infroneer bid ¥770. The Board said “too low” but then accepted. A month later, YFO offered ¥1,000. Too high, bad owner, not accepted.
Summer 2023 after a year of palm to the face for YFO, the Board was partly spilled. YFO bid ¥1,255/share and the Board said the premium was too low.
Now, the Board has accepted a bid from Taisei at a roughly similar premium. But the price is ¥1,850/share. Infroneer and YFO have agreed to sell. Minorities win… -ish

Merger Arb Mondays (11 Aug) – Mayne, PointsBet, Infomedia, Ashimori, Toyo Const, HKBN, Joy City

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Ci Medical (3540 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP).

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Aug25), Changes to Code of Corporate Conduct

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
783 new CGRs filed in July 2025 (after 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 9 July. The parent-sub changes are slow to come.

SSI Weekly Newsletter: Key Updates on Mergers, Legal Disputes, Asset Sales, and Shareholder Votes

Mayne Pharma faces legal challenges with Cosette over merger termination, maintaining no breach occurred; hearing set for September 9.
OCI N.V. plans $700m shareholder return via capital repayment and extraordinary dividend, with ex-dividend date on August 18.
Banxa’s acquisition vote set for August 28, with regulatory approvals pending; spread narrows from 38% to 25%.

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Aug) – Shibaura, Toyo Construction, Technopro, Ashimori, HKBN, Iress

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: I have not covered anything notable this week.
Event-Driven developments:Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Technopro Holdings (6028 JP), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Iress Ltd (IRE AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU).

Weekly Update (LION, MAGN, NLOP, SONY)

By Richard Howe

Sony Group Corporation (SONY) is planning to partially spin off its financial services division, Sony Financial Group Inc. (SFGI), in what would be Japan’s first major spin‑off with a direct listing in over two decades.
The company will divest 80% of its stake while retaining the remaining 20%, and the spin‑off is scheduled for September 29, 2025.
This looks interesting to me as I see potential for indiscriminate selling. Sony Financial Service Group contributes ~13% of Company Net Income (¥1,067.4B).

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Aug 10

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Taisei (1801 JP)’s Bittersweet Tender Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Taisei (1801 JP)’s Bittersweet Tender Offer
HKBN (1310 HK): Response Doc Out. IFA Says Fair
Korea Local Banks: New Dividend Tax Effectively Locks in a De Facto Minimum Yield Play
Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Technopro, Infomedia, Kolon Mobility, Iress, HKBN, Furukawa Battery
S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut
Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY4,140

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Taisei (1801 JP)’s Bittersweet Tender Offer

Toyo Construction (1890 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Taisei Corp (1801 JP) at JPY1,750, a 6.4% premium to the last close of JPY1,644.
Unusually, Taisei has set the lower limit of the tender plus irrevocables at a 55.43% ownership ratio, below the two-thirds EGM share consolidation vote threshold.
Despite the low premium, this is a done deal due to irrevocables from the two previous competing bidders (INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP), YFO), who are also the two largest shareholders.

HKBN (1310 HK): Response Doc Out. IFA Says Fair

After a protracted period towards securing the necessary regulatory approvals, this transaction has since accelerated.
Just two days after the Offer Doc was issued, the Response Doc has now been dispatched.
The IFA (Somerley) says China Mobile (941 HK)‘s terms are fair & reasonable. The First Close is the 3rd September. Expect the Offer to turn unconditional before that date.

Korea Local Banks: New Dividend Tax Effectively Locks in a De Facto Minimum Yield Play

We’ve got a locked-in floor on ’26 DPS and clear upside, providing a solid dividend yield baseline—ideal for leaning into aggressive trade setups.
We can lean into spot longs with covered calls, but yields (especially KB, Shinhan) aren’t yet compelling. A pullback before the ’26 dividend run is a prime entry window.
Plus, a bank long-short: long KB/Shinhan, short Hana/Woori. KB and Shinhan face payout increases, with ’26 guidance in 4Q25 earnings as the catalyst.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, Soul Patts (SOL AU) & Brickworks (BKW AU)‘s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.
Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it’ll get done.
For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why PCCW Ltd (8 HK) would/should trade at a NAV premium.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Technopro, Infomedia, Kolon Mobility, Iress, HKBN, Furukawa Battery

I tally 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU),Ci Medical (3540 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Technopro Holdings (6028 JP), and Kolon Mobility (450140 KS).
Key updates/news took place on Iress Ltd (IRE AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Furukawa Battery (6937 JP).

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.
Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty.

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY4,140

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) at JPY4,140, a 43.8% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it represents a ten-year high, implies a P/B of 1.00x and above the mid-point of the target IFA DCF valuation range.
Despite the lack of irrevocables, the shareholder register facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 12 August to 24 September, with payment from 30 September.

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Aug 09

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Iress (IRE AU): Nothing Firm As Blackstone And Thoma Bravo Circle and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Iress (IRE AU): Nothing Firm As Blackstone And Thoma Bravo Circle
PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps and Declares Offer Unconditional
PointsBet (PBH AU): Call It a Day as Mixi Shows Its Hand

Iress (IRE AU): Nothing Firm As Blackstone And Thoma Bravo Circle

Back in 2021, Swedish PE outfit EQT and Iress Ltd (IRE AU) were unable to firm a transaction. This was discussed in Iress (IRE AU) Accepts EQT’s Latest Proposal.
EQT was granted due diligence after bumping indictive terms to $15.91/share, up from an initial pitch of A$14.80/share. Its been crickets since EQT walked.
Now Blackstone has approached Iress, a trading and wealth management software provider. An indicative A$10.50/share cash Offer was tabled, but since withdrawn. Negotiations with Blackstone and Thoma Bravo are ongoing.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps and Declares Offer Unconditional

After betr Entertainment (BBT AU) bumped scrip terms for PointsBet (PBH AU), a logical course of action for Mixi (2121 JP) was to declare its Offer unconditional.
Now Mixi has bumped terms to A$1.25/share, from A$1.20/share; and declared its Offer unconditional. FIRB gave its nod on the 5th August.
Mixi has 28.2% of shares out, including 1.93% in the acceptance facility. “MIXI reserves the right to increase the offer price if it acquires more than 50% of PointsBet shares“.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Call It a Day as Mixi Shows Its Hand

Mixi Inc (2121 JP) has bumped its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer from 4.2% from A$1.20 to A$1.25 per share. The offer has been declared unconditional and “best and final”.
BETR Entertainment (BBT AU)’s offer remains 2.9% above Mixi’s revised offer, with limited options for a response. The priority is to open its offer by assuaging the Takeover Panel.
The shares are trading 1.2% above Mixi’s offer due to the optionality of a bump if Mixi attains a controlling stake. With little upside remaining, head for the exit.

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Aug 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…
Iress (IRE AU): Blackstone Mulling a Privatisation Bid
StubWorld: PCCW’s Tenacious NAV Premium
[Japan M&A] Air Water Takes over C.I. Medical (3540) – Done Deal, Not Bad
Soul Patts/Brickworks: 10th September Vote To Collapse Circularity
Tender Offer and Delisting of Kolon Mobility Group by Kolon Corp
CI Medical (3540 JP): Air Water (4088 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…

54 weeks ago Advantage Partners and Furukawa Electric announced a deal to take Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) sub Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) private. The acquisition price was LOW.
Minorities got more – more than book. But the deal included a payment delay allowing BVPS to rise 8.8% from the announcement date. No synergies.
Furukawa Electric gets to buy back in at a price below book. And because there are cash and securities and lots of net receivables, the operating assets are well below.

Iress (IRE AU): Blackstone Mulling a Privatisation Bid

The AFR reports that Blackstone (BX US) is considering a privatisation bid which could value Iress Ltd (IRE AU) at about A$1.9 billion (more than A$10 per share).
Iress is no stranger to privatisation interest. In 2021, EQT (EQT SS) bid against itself thrice to offer A$15.91, before failing to table a binding proposal.
The shareholder structure facilitates an offer. The rumoured offer is a good starting point, but it is far from a knockout bid.

StubWorld: PCCW’s Tenacious NAV Premium

Despite the recent pullback, PCCW Ltd (8 HK) continues to trade at an unjustifiable premium to NAV.
Preceding my comments on PCCW/ HKT Ltd (6823 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

[Japan M&A] Air Water Takes over C.I. Medical (3540) – Done Deal, Not Bad

Today, Air Water Inc (4088 JP) and Ci Medical (3540 JP) announced that the CEO and Air Water who together own 85% would be taking over the company.
That’s nice. That means it’s a done deal and nobody can do anything about it. Complain all you want, it’s done.
Helpfully, the Board did its job (as did Shimizu-san – he’s selling most of his stake). This is not badly-priced for an ultimately coercive deal.

Soul Patts/Brickworks: 10th September Vote To Collapse Circularity

Back on the 2 June 2025, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) and 42.92%-held Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) announced that, via inter-conditional Schemes, they would merge.
TopCo, a new ASX-listed company, will acquire all of the shares in SOL and BKW via the issuance of TopCo shares: 1:1 for SOL and 0.82:1 for BKW.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with Scheme Meetings on the 10th September, and expected implementation on or before the 23 September. The IE Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

Tender Offer and Delisting of Kolon Mobility Group by Kolon Corp

By Douglas Kim

Kolon Corp (002020 KS) announced that it is conducting a tender offer and delisting of Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS).
The tender offer prices are 4,000 won per common share (20.3% higher than current price) and 5,950 won per preferred share (25.3% higher than current price) for Kolon Mobility Group.
The tender offer prices and stock swap ratios are especially attractive for Kolon Mobility Group shareholders.

CI Medical (3540 JP): Air Water (4088 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Ci Medical (3540 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Air Water Inc (4088 JP) at JPY1,500, a 48.5% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
This is a done deal as the offeror and irrevocable represent an 85.02% ownership ratio, which ensures that the EGM vote for share consolidation will pass.

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Aug 07

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] ¥4 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
[Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough
A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks
Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal
Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$1.72
TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Tender Offer at JPY4,870
Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done
BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success
Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities

This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

[Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) is the owner/operator of a set of ubiquitous brands in aftermarket autocare. Anything to do with washing, cleaning, etc.
The company was founded 70 years ago, and the CEO is 54yrs old. Smells like succession planning.
This deal is a nice premium, but it is too light. The operating assets with consistent growth and 20% OPMs are being sold at <0.9x book. That’s bad.

A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks

With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.
If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.
This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.

Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal

Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), a automotive software firm, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PE-outfit TPG.
TPG is offering A$1.72/share, a 30% premium to last close. The transaction requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of Infomedia’s boards.
As discussed in Infomedia (IFM AU): Now A Three-Way Hunt, Infomedia fielded various indicative Offers (including TA Associates/Viburnum, Battery Ventures, and Solera) in 2022, none of which went the distance.

Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$1.72

Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with TPG Inc (TPG US) at A$1.72, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price of A$1.32 (5 August).
The scheme is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Shareholders should be supportive, given a reasonable offer and Infomedia’s history of non-binding bids.
At the last close and for an end-of-November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/7.5%.

TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Tender Offer at JPY4,870

Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) announced a tender offer from Blackstone at JPY4,870, a 43.7% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY3,389 but at a slight discount to the last close.
While below the last close, Blackstone’s offer was a result of an auction process and was the highest binding offer. The offer also represents a pre-media rumour all-time high.
Surprisingly, Blackstone has not disclosed irrevocables. The Board has a neutral opinion. Nevertheless, a fair auction process suggests there will be limited opposition to the offer.

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Context: Tencent (700 HK)is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.
Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.
Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) has recommended an MBO from Mr. Hideaki Tanaka (CEO) at JPY2,465, a 52.2% premium to the last close.
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light as it implies a P/B of 0.93x and is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Barring the emergence of an activist, a benign shareholder register and the irrevocables suggest that this is a done deal.

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.
Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.
Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

By Sumeet Singh

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.
After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund
[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Yageo’s Calculus
TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured Takeunder Offer
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open

Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund

From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.
Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).
Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”

There was an article in mid-May saying Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) might be privatised. It is an appropriate candidate. The stock popped 20% immediately, and has since risen another 20%.
Today’s article follows one which came out ~2 weeks ago with non-sourced editorial content suggesting the price might be 20x EBITDA (i.e. a lot higher).
Today, an article says Blackstone will buy the firm for “Roughly ¥500bn” which would be 3% down from yesterday. Beware the Nikkei. Beware expectations.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Yageo’s Calculus

Reuters reports that the Ministry of Finance of Japan reclassified Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) to Type 3 (core designated company).
Reportedly, Yageo’s application was made with a view to Shibaura’s businesses falling under the core category. A blocked deal would set back Prime Minister Ishiba’s goal to improve China relations.
The change to Shibaura’s designation to core helps explain the elongated approval process, as the Ministry of Finance and Yageo need time to agree on acceptable undertakings.

TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured Takeunder Offer

The Nikkei reports that Blackstone (BX US) will launch the tender offer for Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) just below JPY4,900, a 44.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
While the rumoured offer is 1.5% below the last close, it is attractive as it resulted from an auction and represents a pre-media rumour all-time high.
It is unclear if the offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals. Blackstone is likely to secure irrevocables from activists like Orbis to project a secure path to completion.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open

On the 1st August, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced China Mobile (941 HK) had satisfied all pre-cons. The Offer Doc is now out.
The First Close is the 3rd September with payment potentially on or around the 12th September – if the Offer turns unconditional on the First Close.
There is no IFA opinion in this Doc. That will be present in the Response Doc, which is expected to be dispatched on or before the 20th August.

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Aug 05

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up
Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights
Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)
StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)
China Mobile (941 HK) Results on 7 Aug: Low Volatility History Faces Test
Merger Breaks, Stake Increases, and Strategic Sales: Key Developments in SSI’s Weekly Update

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up

AH premia up, erasing the previous week’s gains for Hs. “Beautiful Skew” continues in negative overall performance.
Last week I said “This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable.” This week it unwound some.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights

SoftBank Group (9984 JP) reports Q1 FY2025 earnings on 7 August at 15:30 JST, with a conference call at 16:30 JST.
Highlights: SoftBank’s post-earnings moves are often sharp and unpredictable — with outliers above ±12%. Options markets flag the results day as a high-volatility event to watch.
Why Read: Essential for investors or options traders focused on Japan: Understand how timing, historic patterns and current volatility pricing shape both opportunity and risk around SoftBank earnings.

Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender

Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), currently holding 6.19% in Thai Union Group (TU TB), a global seafood leader, is seeking to lift its stake to 20% via a Partial Offer.
Mitsubishi is offering THB12.50/share for 532.27mn shares in Thai Union, or 13.81% of shares out (excluding treasuries), an outlay of ~US$200mn. If <13.81% tender, the Offer lapses.
Last month Mitsubishi expanded its salmon farming by acquiring additional businesses in Norway and Canada for ~US$1bn.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.
FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again.
Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.

StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)‘s simple ratio (INDF/Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)) is at a seven-year-plus high, and the implied stub a three-year high.
Preceding my comments on the Indofood and First Pacific Co (142 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

China Mobile (941 HK) Results on 7 Aug: Low Volatility History Faces Test

China Mobile (941 HK) / China Mobile (600941 CH) will release 2024 interim results on Thursday, 7 August 2025. The stock is a key constituent of the HSI and HSCEI.
Highlights: Past earnings moves have been modest, but the options skew hints at potential for surprises. Dividend decision also due.
Why Read: Helps time exposure and evaluate short-term risks ahead of results and dividend announcement for cash investors and option traders.

Merger Breaks, Stake Increases, and Strategic Sales: Key Developments in SSI’s Weekly Update

ProAssurance merger with The Doctors Company faces potential regulatory hurdles, particularly in California, risking a 30-40% stock drop.
Lifeway Foods and Danone have resumed buyout talks, with confidentiality agreements in place, aiming for a resolution.
Webjet Group sees increased stake from Helloworld Travel, indicating potential takeover interest following a rejected offer.

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Aug 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets
Weekly Deals Digest (03 Aug) – CK Hutchison, Joy City, HKBN, Fujitec, Krosaki Harima, NSDL
[Japan M&A] Krosaki Harima (5352) Takeout by Parent Nippon Steel – Cheapish But Done
[Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat
Merger Arb Mondays (04 Aug) – Santos, Joy City, HKBN, Krosaki Harima, Fujitec, Smart Share
Smart Share Global (EM US): MBO Firmed
Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report
Spectris – Board Flips to Advent’s Raised Offer, KKR Cornered

60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets

Revisions to the draft are almost certain, but near-term flows will still trade off the current framework—so screening now helps front-run likely winners before the final version lands.
Out of 386 stocks with FY1/FY2 consensus data, 60 names screen in based on FY2: payout ≥40% or ≥25% with DPS up 5%+ vs. 3Y avg.
This tax reform will still drive near-term KOSPI flow—these screened names are core policy plays worth building setups around.

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Aug) – CK Hutchison, Joy City, HKBN, Fujitec, Krosaki Harima, NSDL

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: NSDL (NSDL IN) is seeking to raise US$464 million.
Event-Driven developments: CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP), Krosaki Harima (5352 JP).

[Japan M&A] Krosaki Harima (5352) Takeout by Parent Nippon Steel – Cheapish But Done

On Friday 1 August, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and subsidiary Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) announced the parent would buy out the sub at ¥4,200/share.
This seems light given the structure of the balance sheet (lots of net receivables – a bunch against the buyer) but it would be awfully tough to see this broken.
As it is a long-dated deal, I expect it trades too tight early on, then may flatten or fade.

[Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat

On 30 July, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) and Swedish PE Firm EQT announced a deal to acquire the company with the Uchiyama family. Two activists signed tender agreements.
The deal is not expensive IF you underwrite strong profitability growth and assume the large net receivables position can be better addressed.
But the stock is trading tight to terms and there are 6+ months until you get your money.

Merger Arb Mondays (04 Aug) – Santos, Joy City, HKBN, Krosaki Harima, Fujitec, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Krosaki Harima (5352 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US), New World Resources (NWC AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Nippon Concept (9386 JP).

Smart Share Global (EM US): MBO Firmed

Nearly seven months after Smart Share (EM US), the largest provider of mobile device charging services in China, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal, a firm Offer has been entered into.
Terms remains the same as the indicative NBIO: US$0.625/share (US$1.25/ADS), a 74.8% premium to last close. The Offeror comprises a consortium led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO.
Timing from here? Perhaps three to four months, or late November completion by my estimate.

Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal

Smart Share Global (EM US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement for a Trustar Capital-sponsored MBO at US$1.25 per ADS.
The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk), shareholder approval (effectively done) and a maximum dissenting condition (likely to be waived).
This is a done deal. At the last close and for the end of December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.8%/20.1% (3.5%/8.7% including an ADS cancellation fee).

RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June’s larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.
Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets – a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade.
Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.
Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.
Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.

Spectris – Board Flips to Advent’s Raised Offer, KKR Cornered

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Advent raises its bid for Spectris to £40.72/share, including a 6.3% premium over KKR’s prior offer, intensifying the competitive landscape and prompting a renewed board recommendation.
Irrevocable undertakings and partial share acquisition reduce KKR’s strategic room, though the transaction remains under close investor scrutiny amid broader private equity competition for UK assets.
Despite minimal spread, the situation offers insight into pricing discipline, sponsor credibility, and evolving UK M&A dynamics in a high-rate, FX-sensitive environment.

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Aug 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Satisfies the Precondition
Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium
Krosaki Harima (5352 JP): Nippon Steel’s Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,200
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Joy City, Hogy Medical, Nihon Chouzai, Piedmont Lithium, Pacific Ind.

HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly

Almost exactly eight months after HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer, China Mobile (941 HK) has now satisfied all pre-cons.
The Offer Doc will be dispatched on or around the 12th August, at which time the Offer will be open for acceptances.
This could turn unconditional early September. Trading tight at a gross spread of 1.5%. Keep in mind a basket of peers are up 23% since the Offer was announced.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Satisfies the Precondition

The precondition for China Mobile (941 HK)’s HK$5.075 offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) is satisfied. The offer is final. The offer document must be despatched by 8 August.
The HKBN CEO has commented that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, suggesting a possibility that the Board does not recommend the offer.
Nevertheless, there is a clear pathway for the offer to satisfy the 50% minimum acceptance condition and be declared unconditional. The gross/annualised spread for a 13 September payment is 1.5%/13.0%.

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium

Intervention seeds participation as a PRC investor (COSCO?) is expected to join the bidding consortium for CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) ports.
GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) needs to sell shares in GMO Internet (4784 JP)to achieve a “float” of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling.
Prosus NV (PRX NA) has been selling Tencent (700 HK), then buying back its shares. (As has Tencent). Reportedly Prosus is now selling shares in Meituan (3690 HK).

Krosaki Harima (5352 JP): Nippon Steel’s Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,200

Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) has recommended a preconditional tender offer from Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP), the parent, at JPY4,200, a 21.7% premium to the last close price of JPY3,450.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the mid-point of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range.
The precondition relates to regulatory approvals in Japan and India. The tender offer is expected to start in early February 2026. This is a done deal.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Joy City, Hogy Medical, Nihon Chouzai, Piedmont Lithium, Pacific Ind.

I tally 40 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Joy City Property (207 HK), Hogy Medical (3593 JP), and Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP).
Key updates/news took place on MAC Copper (MAC AU), PointsBet (PBH AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU),Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), and Topcon (7732 JP) .

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Aug 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Joy City (207 HK): Minorities Should Take The Cash and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Joy City (207 HK): Minorities Should Take The Cash
Tax Pivot in Play: Ruling Party Rethink Could Flip Market Narrative
Current Active Merger, Acquisition, and Liquidation Opportunities: An Overview
Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Mergers, Asset Sales, Litigation, High-Growth Opportunities

Joy City (207 HK): Minorities Should Take The Cash

Chinese property play Joy City (207 HK) has announced a Scheme buyback, with a price of $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but more like a 158% premium to undisturbed.
Yes, this is a 70% discount to NAV. Yet Joy City has traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe.
The IFA will likely cite liquidity and Joy City’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and probably even “fair”. It is what it is for long-suffering shareholders.

Tax Pivot in Play: Ruling Party Rethink Could Flip Market Narrative

Today’s selloff spooked the ruling party, prompting top lawmakers to signal tax tweak talks less than 24hrs after rollout — and they’re clearly watching the tape.
Cap gains threshold likely gets bumped to ₩3–5bn. STT hike stays. Div tax top rate may drop from 35% to 25% amid internal party push.
President Lee’s focused on pragmatism—cutting household debt and boosting corporate liquidity. Expect the tax narrative to pivot next week, sending local market sentiment in a new direction from Friday’s tape.

Current Active Merger, Acquisition, and Liquidation Opportunities: An Overview

ProAssurance merger with TDC faces potential regulatory hurdles, creating a short opportunity with limited downside and significant upside.
PMV Pharmaceuticals trades at a discount to net cash with imminent trial results and strategic review as catalysts.
Next Science plans to distribute US$30m from asset sale, offering a 13% spread to expected distribution price.

Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Mergers, Asset Sales, Litigation, High-Growth Opportunities