This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Steno Signals #184 – Here is the roadmap for the business cycle in 2025
- Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we aim to paint a medium-term picture of liquidity, growth, and inflation—and how these factors will impact your allocation.
- It seems The Donald has a penchant for late Friday tariff announcements, keeping markets on edge for a second consecutive Monday open.
- This pattern is starting to take shape, though we likely need a third occurrence before drawing statistical conclusions.
2. The Economic Impact of Tariffs
- Recent announcements of tariffs by the Trump administration have caused global tensions and retaliatory measures
- The tariffs are aimed at countries like Mexico, Canada, and China, with potential impacts on US companies and global supply chains
- The situation is evolving, with negotiations and potential escalations to watch for in the coming days
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
3. The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves
- Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation. China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.
- DeepSeek’s announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.
- Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump’s hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market.
4. Korea Exchange Announces 8 Major Incentives for Selected Excellent Value-Up Companies
- On 11 February, the Korea Exchange announced eight major incentives for selected excellent Corporate Value Up companies every May starting this year.
- Some of the major incentives include preferential tax treatment and preferential inclusion in the Korea Value Up index.
- The Korea Exchange plans to select and announce 10 companies that will be included as Excellent Value Up Companies for the first time in May 2025.
5. Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)
- Hong Kong’s secular bull market gained after DeepSeek’s announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.
- Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm. Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.
- BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.
6. The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?
- All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order.
- For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday.
- This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.
7. Impact of Nextrade Alternative Trading System Going Live on the Korean Stock Market on 4 March
- Nextrade (NXT) is an alternative trading system (ATS) in Korea which will start to go live on 4 March.
- Nextrade provided a list of 10 stocks including Lotte Shopping, Cheil Worldwide, Kolon Industries, LG Uplus, and S Oil that will start to trade on NXT starting 4 March.
- Most of these 10 stocks tend to be lower beta stocks with relatively low amounts of share volatility. These 10 stocks are up on average 2.8% YTD, underperforming KOSPI.
8. The Rise of Quant Investing in Crypto w/ Truvius CEO Connor Farley | The New Barbarians #007
- The podcast is called New Barbarians and focuses on digital assets and opportunities in the market
- The special guest, Connor Farley, is the CEO and co-founder of Truvias, an SEC registered investment advisor specializing in digital asset portfolio management
- The current market trends include rising inflation concerns, increasing interest in gold, and the potential for Bitcoin to act as digital gold, according to the hosts and guest.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
9. Advancements in Portfolio Construction & Optimization | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #001
- The podcast discusses advanced portfolio optimization techniques in the world of digital assets
- Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a key concept in investing, but newer models and techniques like Black Litterman and shrinkage estimators are being used to address limitations
- Thematic model grouping and consolidated alpha optimization are two key approaches to portfolio construction discussed in the episode.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
10. Early Days of New Trump Administration
- The early days of the Trump administration has seen lots of volatility around the tariffs with Canada and Mexico, but the more stable U.S. Treasury market helps provide an anchor.
- U.S. Treasuries have shift towards the view that the 10yr budget bill will be delayed until H2 and likely be only modestly stimulative in 2026.
- Combined with the Fed still leaving the door open to rate cuts this has helped avoid major directional movements.
