Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Feb 2, 2025

By February 2, 2025 No Comments
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. DeepSeek R1. Ahem, This Is Awkward..

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • DeepSeek’s R1 is a game changer that’s taken the world by storm. It’s a fantastic accomplishment by a Chinese team and a huge endorsement of the open source approach
  • US competitors have egg on their faces now, but they will adapt. Competition is always a good thing & the future of AI just got a whole lot brighter
  • Last night’s selloff was a Chinese New Year gift. Just accept it. Happy CNY to all!

2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
  • Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth? 
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. 

3. Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • SK Hynix Expects 100% HBM Revenue Growth in 2025E After a Massive 2024 — Which Means Traditional DRAM Doesn’t Matter as Much Anymore
  • DeepSeek Market Fears — A Problem for HBM & Enterprise SSD Memory?
  • AI Industry Opportunities Are Not a Fixed Size Pie — Will DeepSeek Impact HBM DRAM TAM? Why We Don’t Think So

4. PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Recent U.S. Market Weakness Appears to Have Been More Focused on Falling Sentiment for Server Businesses, Not PCs
  • CES 2025 Showed Qualcomm Chips Gaining Momentum in PCs, While AMD Continued Aggressive Competition — Intel Under Pressure
  • PC Maker Universe to Experience Decent Revenue Growth in 2025E — Structural Long Asustek & Dell

5. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Dramatic Spreads Open Up After DeepSeek Rout & Taiwan Market Closure

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: 10.8% Premium; Taiwanese Investors Likely to Be Less Shocked by DeepSeek News?
  • UMC: -7.3% Discount; The Latest Extreme Discount Cannot Be Sustained
  • ASE: -10.2% Discount; This Extreme Discount Also Cannot Be Sustained

6. ASML. Strong Finish For 24, Robust Outlook For 25 With AI As Key Growth Driver

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • ASML reported Q424 revenues of €9.3 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 24% QoQ and up 28.5% YoY.
  • Full year 2024 revenue amounted to €28.3 billion, up 2.7% YoY and a modest improvement on the previously forecasted zero growth
  • Guided full year 2025 revenues to be in the $30-$35 billion range, representing a 15% YoY increase at the midpoint.

7. Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Latest AAPL Results — Taiwan Suppliers Well Placed for Monday Re-Open

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Apple 1Q25 Results — Overall Price-Supportive for Taiwan Supplier Share Prices When the Taiwan Market Re-Opens Monday
  • Why Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT) and Kinsus Interconnect Tech (3189 TT) Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory
  • Increasingly sophisticated Apple products require significantly more complex PCBs & interconnect solutions, especially as advanced packaging has become a key enabler of high-performance computing.

8. Semiconductor’s Over-Dependency on AI

By Jim Handy, Objective Analysis

  • A new AI platform named DeepSeek threatens today’s Large Language Model status quo
  • Certain chip companies have become over-dependent on AI, including Nvidia, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, and their stock has tumbled
  • It’s too early to tell what will occur over the long term

9. Intel Q424. It’s A Journey, Not A Destination

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.
  • Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ
  • Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026.