This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. DeepSeek R1. Ahem, This Is Awkward..
- DeepSeek’s R1 is a game changer that’s taken the world by storm. It’s a fantastic accomplishment by a Chinese team and a huge endorsement of the open source approach
- US competitors have egg on their faces now, but they will adapt. Competition is always a good thing & the future of AI just got a whole lot brighter
- Last night’s selloff was a Chinese New Year gift. Just accept it. Happy CNY to all!
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium
- PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
- Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth?
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US.
3. Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth?
- SK Hynix Expects 100% HBM Revenue Growth in 2025E After a Massive 2024 — Which Means Traditional DRAM Doesn’t Matter as Much Anymore
- DeepSeek Market Fears — A Problem for HBM & Enterprise SSD Memory?
- AI Industry Opportunities Are Not a Fixed Size Pie — Will DeepSeek Impact HBM DRAM TAM? Why We Don’t Think So
4. PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
- Recent U.S. Market Weakness Appears to Have Been More Focused on Falling Sentiment for Server Businesses, Not PCs
- CES 2025 Showed Qualcomm Chips Gaining Momentum in PCs, While AMD Continued Aggressive Competition — Intel Under Pressure
- PC Maker Universe to Experience Decent Revenue Growth in 2025E — Structural Long Asustek & Dell
5. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Dramatic Spreads Open Up After DeepSeek Rout & Taiwan Market Closure
- TSMC: 10.8% Premium; Taiwanese Investors Likely to Be Less Shocked by DeepSeek News?
- UMC: -7.3% Discount; The Latest Extreme Discount Cannot Be Sustained
- ASE: -10.2% Discount; This Extreme Discount Also Cannot Be Sustained
6. ASML. Strong Finish For 24, Robust Outlook For 25 With AI As Key Growth Driver
- ASML reported Q424 revenues of €9.3 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 24% QoQ and up 28.5% YoY.
- Full year 2024 revenue amounted to €28.3 billion, up 2.7% YoY and a modest improvement on the previously forecasted zero growth
- Guided full year 2025 revenues to be in the $30-$35 billion range, representing a 15% YoY increase at the midpoint.
7. Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Latest AAPL Results — Taiwan Suppliers Well Placed for Monday Re-Open
- Apple 1Q25 Results — Overall Price-Supportive for Taiwan Supplier Share Prices When the Taiwan Market Re-Opens Monday
- Why Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT) and Kinsus Interconnect Tech (3189 TT) Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory
- Increasingly sophisticated Apple products require significantly more complex PCBs & interconnect solutions, especially as advanced packaging has become a key enabler of high-performance computing.
8. Semiconductor’s Over-Dependency on AI
- A new AI platform named DeepSeek threatens today’s Large Language Model status quo
- Certain chip companies have become over-dependent on AI, including Nvidia, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, and their stock has tumbled
- It’s too early to tell what will occur over the long term
9. Intel Q424. It’s A Journey, Not A Destination
- Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.
- Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ
- Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026.