This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. NVIDIA @ CES 2025. Forget The AIPC, We’ve Got A Supercomputer PC!
- Project Digits is a supercomputer on everybody’s desk for $3000. Seems crazy but feels like 1977 Ken Olson moment “no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”
- Lack of data center revenue growth predictions likely spooked investors and triggered a ~10% pullback. Just buy the dip, you know you want to…
- Micron and MediaTek both jumped on news of their further involvement in NVIDIA’s AI acceleration hardware supply chain.
2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.
- After the peak of 4Q24, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)‘s revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.
- TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Apple (AAPL US) could present products around 1Q26.
- TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025.
3. 2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook
- Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.
- This last year was the year of AI through and through.
- There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.
4. Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales
- Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC
- The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs
- Intel’s performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23.
5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix’s HBM Win
- Latest TSMC Price Hike — Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative
- Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC’s Largest Customer in 2025E
- SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings
6. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.
- United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
- We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.
- It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.
7. Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (II)
- Considering of current financial outcome of Intel Corp (INTC US), we cannot but favor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US).
- Currently, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) has a more favorable competitive landscape compared to Intel Corp (INTC US).
- The competition in PC CPU emphasizes not only performance but also heat dissipation and other techniques related to supply management.