This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level
- TSMC: +28.4% Premium; Near-All-Time High, Good Level to Short the Spread
- UMC: -0.4% Discount; Fifth Consecutive Month of Increase in ADR Headroom
- CHT: -0.9% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
2. TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead
- December 2024 revenues of NT$278.16 billion, up 0.8% MoM and up a remarkable 57.8% YoY. It was the second highest monthly revenue in the company’s history.
- Q424 revenue amounted to NT$868,460. At the company’s forecasted exchange rate for Q4, NT$32 to the US$, this amounts to $27.14 billion, the company’s highest quarterly revenue ever
- We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.
3. Is Quantum Computing An Existential Threat To NVIDIA?
- This is the claim made by an analyst covering IonQ after Jensen’s comments at CES 2025 last week, which tanked share prices of the top four QC proponents
- The CEO’s of both D-Wave and IonQ responded rapidly with press releases refuting his claims and sharing updated, positive news wrt their financials
- What exactly did he say that caused such a response, is he correct or is QC going to eat NVIDIA’s lunch?
4. TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth
- TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY
- TSMC’s Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment
- Long-Term Gross Margins — Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a “New Normal”?
5. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say.
- There is a great opportunity for someone joining an advanced semiconductor manufacturing camp because there could be fewer players in the field.
- For a long time, TSMC production staff have won better bonuses in the company, meaning they might be able to overcome the difficulties in production.
- Rapidus might need another 5 years or more to become profitable if everything runs smoothly for 2nm technology.
6. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible
- TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan
- TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook & Q125 Look Ahead
- Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co
7. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.
- Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.
- Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.
- AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),
8. Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co
- Delta Thailand Weakness Amid Block Trade and Convertible Bond News
- Delta Taiwan Offering Convertible Bonds, Convertible into Delta Thailand Shares
- Delta Thailand Still Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan — Short Delta Thailand vs. Long Delta Taiwan
9. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook
- In 1Q25, there was a further improvement to -5% QoQ for UMC, and its gross margin is at around 26-28%.
- The extra improvement is from Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), which has also received an additional order from Vivo.
- The outlook remains unclear as Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing uncertainties in 2025.
10. TSMC. The Juggernaut Accelerates!
- AI related demand accounted for ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025
- 5 year growth CAGR of 20%, at the top end of the previously guided 15-20% range
- On track for $100 billion revenue in 2025, and most likely, $200 billion by 2030