Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Resurgent US inflation and UK GDP growth sicken dovish arguments, even if the turn is exaggerated by residual seasonality in H1. We now see the Fed’s next move as a hike. Uruguay joined Brazil as another hawkish canary by hiking, while BSP didn’t cut.</li><li>It’s the RBA and RBNZ’s turn next week, where cuts are expected, but they are lagging behind the global policy cycle, not leading it. UK inflation, unemployment and wage data will be the highlights for us, along with FOMC minutes and flash PMIs.</li><li>Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to transition@smartkarma.com).</li></ul><p></p>

Resurgent US inflation and UK GDP growth sicken dovish arguments, even if the turn is exaggerated by residual seasonality in H1. We now see the Fed’s next move as a hike. Uruguay joined Brazil as another hawkish canary by hiking, while BSP didn’t cut.It’s the RBA and RBNZ’s turn next week, where cuts are expected, but they are lagging behind the global policy cycle, not leading it. UK inflation, unemployment and wage data will be the highlights for us, along with FOMC minutes and flash PMIs.Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

HEW: Hawkish Canaries and Sick Doves