SIGA Technologies — Fundamentals intact amid several moving parts

Q325 was a quieter quarter for SIGA following strong Q2 sales, although this was not unexpected given its contract-driven model and inherent revenue lumpiness. No product sales were recorded, with total revenue of $2.6m reflecting IV TPOXX tech transfer income and R&D reimbursement under the BARDA 19C contract. R&D spend rose sharply (+133% y-o-y to $7.1m), likely tied to pediatric study preparations and internal R&D programs. We expect a similar operating pattern in Q4, with medium-term visibility dependent on the timing of the US request for proposal (RFP) for TPOXX, which may be affected by the recent government shutdown and staffing constraints. Nonetheless, we continue to anticipate a new US stockpiling contract in 2026. We believe that despite regulatory and timing uncertainties (EU referral, US procurement), SIGA remains well capitalized ($172m cash at end-Q3, ~4x opex run-rate ex-COGS) to weather this short-term volatility. After minor forecast revisions, our valuation adjusts moderately to $14.57/share (from $14.78/share).