Strong newsflow expected in 2017

PharmaMar is approaching two key milestones in H217: an approval decision for Aplidin for multiple myeloma in Europe; and Phase III results for lurbinectedin in ovarian cancer. The Chugai licence deal for lurbinectedin in Japan has strengthened the company’s financial position (pro forma net debt €32m) and seen it put increased emphasis on its preferred strategy to either self-commercialise or co-promote lurbinectedin in the US. Separately, a US manufacturing patent granted last year has extended IP protection for lurbinectedin until at least December 2032. These developments have prompted us to adopt co-promotion in the US in our base case valuation scenario and to extend our rNPV model to 2035 vs 2030 previously. Our base case valuation has increased by 29% to €1.29bn (vs €1.01bn), or €5.79/share (vs €4.55/share).