Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A renewed rise in the UK unemployment rate took it to 4.4% despite employment hitting record highs. Participation among older people has reversed much of its pandemic fall.</li><li>The underlying UR trend also increased, making this change look genuine. Nonetheless, the past two similar occasions proved extremes, with the UR falling a few months later.</li><li>Rapid pay growth might have encouraged labour force participation. The direct inflation effect should dominate the second-order slack story, but the BoE will probably cut.</li></ul><p></p>

A renewed rise in the UK unemployment rate took it to 4.4% despite employment hitting record highs. Participation among older people has reversed much of its pandemic fall.The underlying UR trend also increased, making this change look genuine. Nonetheless, the past two similar occasions proved extremes, with the UR falling a few months later.Rapid pay growth might have encouraged labour force participation. The direct inflation effect should dominate the second-order slack story, but the BoE will probably cut.

UK Pay And Participation Are Rising