Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK CPI inflation jumped 0.2pp beyond expectations to 3% y-o-y in January amid broadly excessive price rises, to the extent that the median annualises at almost 6%.</li><li>Underlying pressures have been trending higher since easing began, and the headline rate is set to keep rising, albeit with little change before the BoE’s likely cut in May.</li><li>Demand growth keeps unemployment low, suggesting monetary conditions are too loose for tight cyclical pressures. We expect rate hikes in 2026 to reverse premature cuts.</li></ul><p></p>

UK CPI inflation jumped 0.2pp beyond expectations to 3% y-o-y in January amid broadly excessive price rises, to the extent that the median annualises at almost 6%.Underlying pressures have been trending higher since easing began, and the headline rate is set to keep rising, albeit with little change before the BoE’s likely cut in May.Demand growth keeps unemployment low, suggesting monetary conditions are too loose for tight cyclical pressures. We expect rate hikes in 2026 to reverse premature cuts.

UK Prices Surge Into 2025