Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

US corporate sentiment has become less upbeat for larger companies due to trade-induced uncertainties, but small companies, with their higher domestic exposure, have recently become more upbeat about the future business environment.
Current global supply chains took years to establish. Hence, ongoing concerns about prospective replacements are unlikely to dissipate soon or even after the possible arrival of a new Administration, because Democrats have also embraced protectionism.
Despite the vulnerability to higher costs stemming from tariffs, members of the National Federation of Independent Business cite declining available labour quality, a typical late-cycle phenomenon, as being their main business concern. Consequently, this has created an incentive to invest in labour-saving capital equipment to preserve internal efficiencies.
The Trump Administration's recent tactic of threatening Mexico with tariffs over illegal immigration succeeded in forcing the Fed to further lower their bar for reducing the federal funds rate, thereby potentially encouraging President Trump to further use tariffs to pressure Chair Powell.
Currently, not all Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members share Chair Powell's dovish inclinations. Agreements about the nature of unfolding threats to their dual mandate, as well as financial stability, need to be reached before a reduction in the federal funds rate can be engineered.
Financial conditions do not currently jeopardise economic activity or risk-taking, although an insurance policy rate cut by the Fed could fuel excessive speculation in financial markets that could ultimately destabilise the real economy.

US corporate sentiment has become less upbeat for larger companies due to trade-induced uncertainties, but small companies, with their higher domestic exposure, have recently become more upbeat about the future business environment.
Current global supply chains took years to establish. Hence, ongoing concerns about prospective replacements are unlikely to dissipate soon or even after the possible arrival of a new Administration, because Democrats have also embraced protectionism.
Despite the vulnerability to higher costs stemming from tariffs, members of the National Federation of Independent Business cite declining available labour quality, a typical late-cycle phenomenon, as being their main business concern. Consequently, this has created an incentive to invest in labour-saving capital equipment to preserve internal efficiencies.
The Trump Administration's recent tactic of threatening Mexico with tariffs over illegal immigration succeeded in forcing the Fed to further lower their bar for reducing the federal funds rate, thereby potentially encouraging President Trump to further use tariffs to pressure Chair Powell.
Currently, not all Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members share Chair Powell's dovish inclinations. Agreements about the nature of unfolding threats to their dual mandate, as well as financial stability, need to be reached before a reduction in the federal funds rate can be engineered.
Financial conditions do not currently jeopardise economic activity or risk-taking, although an insurance policy rate cut by the Fed could fuel excessive speculation in financial markets that could ultimately destabilise the real economy.

US Corporate Sentiment Becomes Bifurcated, While Fed Requires Time to Justify Any Rate Cut