'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Zozo: At First the Fit Was Bad but Now the Threads Are Unravelling

Zozo: Looks Like There's a Dead Cat in This Bouncy Zozosuit

Zozo: A Shooting Star Shooting Itself in the Foot

Onward Quits Zozo: Another Dent in Zozo's Reputation

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/558/original/2019-02-01_08-16-08.png?1548976615" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77558"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>DOWN AND OUT</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a>'s third-quarter results which were announced yesterday, saw a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase in sales and trailing-twelve-month (TTM) revenues increased by 25%. Elsewhere the wheels are gradually coming off. In ZOZO most important quarter of the year, Operating Income rose by just 8.2% year-on-year and Net Income by 9.5%. As we mentioned in our previous Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zozo-buying-a-stairway-to-heaven" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27076">Buying a Stairway to Heaven</a>, ZOZO required at least ¥46b in revenues and ¥15b in operating income to meet their full-year forecasts. ¥36b and ¥10b failed to reach this high hurdle and, for the first time since listing, ZOZO has been required to revise down the company's earnings forecasts. Revenues have been revised down by 20%, OPerating Income by 34% and Net Income by 36% compared to the company's previous forecasts. Compared to the trailing-twelve-month number the revisions are +1% and -11%, respectively.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/560/original/2019-02-01_08-23-30.png?1548977046" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77560"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>DOWNSIDE RISK</strong> - If ZOZO has entered an era of low or no-growth, a revaluation fo the business to reflect such a reality could see the company's shares fall by up to 50%</p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsDOWN AND OUT - ZOZO (3092 JP)'s third-quarter results which were announced yesterday, saw a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase in sales and trailing-twelve-month (TTM) revenues increased by 25%. Elsewhere the wheels are gradually coming off. In ZOZO most important quarter of the year, Operating Income rose by just 8.2% year-on-year and Net Income by 9.5%. As we mentioned in our previous Insight, Buying a Stairway to Heaven, ZOZO required at least ¥46b in revenues and ¥15b in operating income to meet their full-year forecasts. ¥36b and ¥10b failed to reach this high hurdle and, for the first time since listing, ZOZO has been required to revise down the company's earnings forecasts. Revenues have been revised down by 20%, OPerating Income by 34% and Net Income by 36% compared to the company's previous forecasts. Compared to the trailing-twelve-month number the revisions are +1% and -11%, respectively.  Source: Japan AnalyticsDOWNSIDE RISK - If ZOZO has entered an era of low or no-growth, a revaluation fo the business to reflect such a reality could see the company's shares fall by up to 50%

ZOZO Inc

ZOZO: Earthbound