Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Following last year's political drama in France, the Bayrou government successfully passed a 2025 budget last week.</li><li>The smooth passage of the budget is likely a temporary political reprieve.</li><li>This situation does not factor in the probable fiscal impact of potential US tariffs.</li></ul>

Following last year's political drama in France, the Bayrou government successfully passed a 2025 budget last week.The smooth passage of the budget is likely a temporary political reprieve.This situation does not factor in the probable fiscal impact of potential US tariffs.

<ul><li>Donald Trump has currently refrained from imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico.</li><li>However, there is a looming threat of tariffs on America's allies.</li><li>This suggests the tax war initiated by Trump against Europe on 20 January could escalate further, potentially surpassing the intensity of trade-in-goods disputes.</li></ul>

Donald Trump has currently refrained from imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico.However, there is a looming threat of tariffs on America's allies.This suggests the tax war initiated by Trump against Europe on 20 January could escalate further, potentially surpassing the intensity of trade-in-goods disputes.

<ul><li>The prevailing view that Russia's economy will force Vladimir Putin to negotiate over Ukraine is disputed.</li><li>Even if Donald Trump follows through on his threats, it may not necessarily influence Putin's decisions.</li><li>Despite this, a deal may still be reached this year, which would be beneficial for European equities.</li></ul>

The prevailing view that Russia's economy will force Vladimir Putin to negotiate over Ukraine is disputed.Even if Donald Trump follows through on his threats, it may not necessarily influence Putin's decisions.Despite this, a deal may still be reached this year, which would be beneficial for European equities.

<ul><li>Political instability in Berlin and Paris has led to a leadership void in Europe with no immediate resolution in sight.</li><li>In Germany, investors are anticipating the political landscape regarding potential reforms of the debt brake.</li><li>France is preparing for an uncertain legislative election mid-year, with Marine Le Pen pressuring Emmanuel Macron to resign prematurely.</li></ul>

Political instability in Berlin and Paris has led to a leadership void in Europe with no immediate resolution in sight.In Germany, investors are anticipating the political landscape regarding potential reforms of the debt brake.France is preparing for an uncertain legislative election mid-year, with Marine Le Pen pressuring Emmanuel Macron to resign prematurely.

<ul><li>Forecasting oil prices for the year is challenging due to the threat of trade wars.</li><li>The downward pressure on oil prices observed in 2024 is expected to continue.</li><li>The projected price for Brent crude oil on 31 December is USD65 per barrel.</li></ul>

Forecasting oil prices for the year is challenging due to the threat of trade wars.The downward pressure on oil prices observed in 2024 is expected to continue.The projected price for Brent crude oil on 31 December is USD65 per barrel.

Alastair was Senior Political Analyst at Nomura International plc between October 2008 and July 2015,
having first joined Lehman Brothers International in that capacity in August 2005. As such, he was responsible for identifying, tracking, analysing and illuminating to investors political events worldwide likely to impact on financial markets. In addition to his signature periodical Issues Which Keep Me Awake At Night on political and geopolitical risk, he was the co-author of major studies on China, India, Indonesia, North Korea, Iran/Israel and on geopolitical risks related to the shift of the global economic centre of gravity back towards Asia, as well as numerous shorter papers.