Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> has been rising &gt; 30% since its 303-low in early April 2025: a vertical rally after Lee Jae-myung's won the Presidential Elections in South Korea.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kospi-200-update-market-moves-after-lee-jae-myung-s-victory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Our most extreme profit target set in our latest insight was 392</a>. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> reached 394 on June 16th. It is now ultra-overbought. 
</li>
<li>Our short-term WEEKLY tactical view is the following: the index could go maybe a bit higher or it could pullback soon (more likely). Not bearish, will be a buy opportunity.
</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX has been rising &gt; 30% since its 303-low in early April 2025: a vertical rally after Lee Jae-myung's won the Presidential Elections in South Korea.

Our most extreme profit target set in our latest insight was 392. The KOSPI 200 reached 394 on June 16th. It is now ultra-overbought. 

Our short-term WEEKLY tactical view is the following: the index could go maybe a bit higher or it could pullback soon (more likely). Not bearish, will be a buy opportunity.



The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

<ul>
<li>This insight offers a quick look at the probability of reversal for a number of stocks and indices in the Asia/Pacific Region, plus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1)</a> </li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> appear overbought, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/key-markets-tactical-outlooks-after-israel-strike-on-iran" target="_blank" rel="noopener">as discussed in a recent insight</a>, Crude Oil can certainly go higher.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> are also very overbought, detailed outlooks have been recently discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-200-tactical-outlook-post-index-rebalance-announcement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here (ASX200)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kospi-200-update-market-moves-after-lee-jae-myung-s-victory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here (KOSPI200).</a>
</li>
</ul>


This insight offers a quick look at the probability of reversal for a number of stocks and indices in the Asia/Pacific Region, plus Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1) 
Both Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) appear overbought, but as discussed in a recent insight, Crude Oil can certainly go higher.

S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) are also very overbought, detailed outlooks have been recently discussed here (ASX200) and here (KOSPI200).



Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.</li>
<li>We analyze: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> </li>
<li>Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model's tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate). </li>
</ul>


A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.
We analyze: Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY) , Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY) , Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) , Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and NIFTY Index 
Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model's tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate). 


Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes... <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-tactical-outlook-amid-rumored-phase-2-buyback-confirmation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%....</a>
</li>
<li>Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.</li>
<li>Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes... we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%....

Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.


Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> is currently rallying after a modest pullback last week.</li>
<li>The index went above our model resistance level at 38347 (50% prob. of reversal). It's modestly overbought and could go higher.</li>
<li>News can perturbate the trajectory of the index but at the moment the Nikkei seems directed towards higher prices: 39216 is our profit target for this rally, before Jun 27th.
</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is currently rallying after a modest pullback last week.
The index went above our model resistance level at 38347 (50% prob. of reversal). It's modestly overbought and could go higher.
News can perturbate the trajectory of the index but at the moment the Nikkei seems directed towards higher prices: 39216 is our profit target for this rally, before Jun 27th.



Nikkei 225 Tactical Outlook Amidst Sony Corp’s Financial Group Spin-Off Talks

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I make extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).

Nico Rosti
Quantitative Researcher
• MRM Research

KOSPI 200 Tactical Warning: OVERBOUGHT

The KOSPI 200 Index has surged over 30% since April 2025, a vertical rally after President Lee Jae-myung's victory. Currently ultra-overbought,...

Nico Rosti

Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

A synoptic view of the reversal probabilities for equities and indices across the Asia-Pacific region, as well as Gold and Crude Oil.

Nico Rosti

Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

Analysis of tactical forecast models for key markets impacted by Israeli attack on Iran. We analyze: Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdsaq100 Index, Nikkei...

Nico Rosti

Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

Samsung Electronics has been range-bound since Oct 2024, but since May 20th we suggested it could take off. Now the stock is short-term...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Tactical Outlook Amidst Sony Corp’s Financial Group Spin-Off Talks

The Nikkei 225 is rallying after a modest pullback last week, surpassing our model Q2 resistance level at 38347. While Sony Corp's spinoff is in...

Nico Rosti

KOSPI 200 Tactical Warning: OVERBOUGHT

​The KOSPI 200 Index has surged over 30% since April 2025, a vertical rally after President Lee Jae-myung's victory. Currently ultra-overbought,...

Nico Rosti

Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

A synoptic view of the reversal probabilities for equities and indices across the Asia-Pacific region, as well as Gold and Crude Oil.

Nico Rosti

Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

​Analysis of tactical forecast models for key markets impacted by Israeli attack on Iran. We analyze: Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdsaq100 Index, Nikkei...

Nico Rosti

Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

​Samsung Electronics has been range-bound since Oct 2024, but since May 20th we suggested it could take off. Now the stock is short-term...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Tactical Outlook Amidst Sony Corp’s Financial Group Spin-Off Talks

​The Nikkei 225 is rallying after a modest pullback last week, surpassing our model Q2 resistance level at 38347. While Sony Corp's spinoff is in...

Nico Rosti

The KOSPI 200 Index has surged over 30% since April 2025, a vertical rally after President Lee Jae-myung's victory. Currently ultra-overbought,...

Analysis of tactical forecast models for key markets impacted by Israeli attack on Iran. We analyze: Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdsaq100 Index, Nikkei...

Samsung Electronics has been range-bound since Oct 2024, but since May 20th we suggested it could take off. Now the stock is short-term...

The Nikkei 225 is rallying after a modest pullback last week, surpassing our model Q2 resistance level at 38347. While Sony Corp's spinoff is in...