Asia Economist, Founder, Asia Decoded

Priyanka Kishore

Asia Economist, Founder

Asia Decoded

Independent, data-centric insights that help you stay on top of Asia's economics and geopolitics.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Despite the ongoing trade talks and tariff de-escalation between the US and China, there is no denying that US trade barriers have risen substantially.</li>
<li>The downside risks to growth are high for export-oriented Asia and warrant a stronger policy response from central banks.</li>
<li>Their cautious approach risks a sharper slowdown and output falling further behind pre-pandemic trend.</li>
</ul>


Despite the ongoing trade talks and tariff de-escalation between the US and China, there is no denying that US trade barriers have risen substantially.
The downside risks to growth are high for export-oriented Asia and warrant a stronger policy response from central banks.
Their cautious approach risks a sharper slowdown and output falling further behind pre-pandemic trend.


<ul>
<li>China's exports to the US dropped $7bn in April from March as the impact of tariffs kicked in. </li>
<li>But its overall exports were barely impacted due to a jump in shipments to the rest of the world.</li>
<li>This should ring a few alarm bells as to how the world will absorb the coming flood of Chinese imports, given Beijing's struggles to lift consumption at home.</li>
</ul>


China's exports to the US dropped $7bn in April from March as the impact of tariffs kicked in. 
But its overall exports were barely impacted due to a jump in shipments to the rest of the world.
This should ring a few alarm bells as to how the world will absorb the coming flood of Chinese imports, given Beijing's struggles to lift consumption at home.


<ul>
<li>The swift escalation in the US-China trade war would ordinarily have been a trigger for faster supply chain diversification.</li>
<li>But this is unlikely amid skyrocketing uncertainty. Investments will likely slow to a crawl over 2025-26, as firms delay decisions on expansions and relocation of production to new destinations.</li>
<li>Firms cannot move manufacturing to the US at the rapid pace at which tariffs are being implemented, without running into production bottlenecks and higher costs.</li>
</ul>


The swift escalation in the US-China trade war would ordinarily have been a trigger for faster supply chain diversification.
But this is unlikely amid skyrocketing uncertainty. Investments will likely slow to a crawl over 2025-26, as firms delay decisions on expansions and relocation of production to new destinations.
Firms cannot move manufacturing to the US at the rapid pace at which tariffs are being implemented, without running into production bottlenecks and higher costs.


'China Plus' Is Collateral Damage of 'America First'

<ul>
<li>Downside growth risks dominate following the sweeping tariffs announced by the US, which is India's largest export partner</li>
<li>Negative impact on labour-intensive exports will disproportionately hurt overall GDP growth</li>
<li>Growth will be best supported by large and frontloaded rate cuts</li>
</ul>


Downside growth risks dominate following the sweeping tariffs announced by the US, which is India's largest export partner
Negative impact on labour-intensive exports will disproportionately hurt overall GDP growth
Growth will be best supported by large and frontloaded rate cuts


Macro Bite - India : Why RBI Should Cut Fast and Deep

<ul>
<li>The scale and scope of Trump's reciprocal tariffs has exceeded our expectations.</li>
<li>The growth outlook has unambiguously worsened across the board and will dominate inflation in Asia this year.</li>
<li>We expect Asian policy rates to be reduced by an average of 100 basis points in 2025.</li>
</ul>


The scale and scope of Trump's reciprocal tariffs has exceeded our expectations.
The growth outlook has unambiguously worsened across the board and will dominate inflation in Asia this year.
We expect Asian policy rates to be reduced by an average of 100 basis points in 2025.


Experienced economist with two decades of expertise in analysing macro-economic and policy trends across Asia. Founder of Asia Decoded, a macro consultancy providing advisory services to policy makers, think tanks, corporates and institutional investors. Prior to that Chief India and SEA Economist for Oxford Economics and senior economist and strategist in the banking sector.

Available for bespoke research, presentations and speaking engagements.

Priyanka Kishore
Asia Economist, Founder
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