Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Bean prices have been oscillating on shifting trade war sentiments. Easing leads to rally followed by pull back in prices when tensions seemingly peak.</li>
<li>Present sentiment remains cautious amid policy uncertainty &amp; robust planting progress, with 84% of the U.S. soybean crop planted as of 1/Jun, above the five-year average of 80%.</li>
<li>Despite the recent pullback in futures, skew (Up Var minus Down Var) has reached a YTD high, signalling market expectations of a spike in bean prices.</li>
</ul>


Bean prices have been oscillating on shifting trade war sentiments. Easing leads to rally followed by pull back in prices when tensions seemingly peak.
Present sentiment remains cautious amid policy uncertainty &amp; robust planting progress, with 84% of the U.S. soybean crop planted as of 1/Jun, above the five-year average of 80%.
Despite the recent pullback in futures, skew (Up Var minus Down Var) has reached a YTD high, signalling market expectations of a spike in bean prices.


Bearishness Persist in Soybeans Despite Rebound Hopes

<ul>
<li>After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained. </li>
<li>Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.  </li>
<li>Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.   </li>
</ul>


After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained. 
Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.  
Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.   


Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.</li>
<li>Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.</li>
<li>Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).</li>
</ul>


Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.
Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

Corn No. 2 Yellow at par and substitutions at differentials established by the exchange.

<ul>
<li>Corn rose 37% from its multi-year low in August until mid-Feb. Strong export demand for U.S. corn and adverse weather in South America supported a longer-term recovery.</li>
<li>US Corn exports for the current MY have exceeded both the 5-year average &amp; previous year. Export momentum has continued even as the dollar has strengthened sharply since October.</li>
<li>2024 drought in Brazil was the worst since 1950. No direct impact on crops but transportation was significantly disrupted. Key waterways/ports used for shipping were affected causing delays.</li>
</ul>


Corn rose 37% from its multi-year low in August until mid-Feb. Strong export demand for U.S. corn and adverse weather in South America supported a longer-term recovery.
US Corn exports for the current MY have exceeded both the 5-year average &amp; previous year. Export momentum has continued even as the dollar has strengthened sharply since October.
2024 drought in Brazil was the worst since 1950. No direct impact on crops but transportation was significantly disrupted. Key waterways/ports used for shipping were affected causing delays.


Corn at Cross Roads: Tariff, Weather Shocks, and the Battle for Global Corn Supply

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul>
<li>Long gold has been a winning strategy over the last two calendar years. Gold futures has clocked a 125% increase since start of 2019 until now.</li>
<li>Gold has seen its strongest rally yet over the last two years, breaking through previous all-time highs with minimal retracement.</li>
<li>GLD ETF has delivered a 7.4% price returns over the last month and an 8% upside YTD in 2025 so far.</li>
</ul>


Long gold has been a winning strategy over the last two calendar years. Gold futures has clocked a 125% increase since start of 2019 until now.
Gold has seen its strongest rally yet over the last two years, breaking through previous all-time highs with minimal retracement.
GLD ETF has delivered a 7.4% price returns over the last month and an 8% upside YTD in 2025 so far.


[Precious Insights 2025/06] Gold Set to Continue Shining

Over twenty years of experience in capital markets covering equities, listed derivatives, physical commodities, OTC commodity derivatives, and digital assets. Straddling sell-side and buy-side with more than a decade of fluency in managing exchange listed products, OTC derivatives, and proficiency in building exchange platforms.

Our investment approach at Mint Finance blends deep fundamental research with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies developed by Mint Finance cuts across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every investment strategy to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across political and monetary economics.