Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>During October, exports continued to show solid momentum, expanding 14.2% yearon-year, supported by Mexico’s sustained competitiveness in international trade.</li>
<li>This performance was accompanied by a 15.7% annual rebound in intermediate goods imports, suggesting stronger demand for inputs from the manufacturing sector amid expanding external demand.</li>
<li>The trade balance posted a surplus of USD 606 million in October, outperforming our projection of a USD 455 million deficit and the consensus forecast of a USD 589 million deficit.</li>
</ul>


During October, exports continued to show solid momentum, expanding 14.2% yearon-year, supported by Mexico’s sustained competitiveness in international trade.
This performance was accompanied by a 15.7% annual rebound in intermediate goods imports, suggesting stronger demand for inputs from the manufacturing sector amid expanding external demand.
The trade balance posted a surplus of USD 606 million in October, outperforming our projection of a USD 455 million deficit and the consensus forecast of a USD 589 million deficit.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Mexican Exports Grow at the Fastest  Pace of the Year

<ul>
<li>In the third quarter, GDP posted a -0.3% QoQ contraction, while weakness in industrial activity and the loss of momentum in the consumption sector persisted.</li>
<li>As a result, our GDP forecast for 2025 would be revised from +0.60% to +0.35%.</li>
<li>In the ninth month of the year, monthly GDP recorded a decline—already anticipated since the release of the flash estimate of quarterly GDP—of -0.6% MoM, below our -0.3% expectation and the -0.1% projected by consensus. </li>
</ul>


In the third quarter, GDP posted a -0.3% QoQ contraction, while weakness in industrial activity and the loss of momentum in the consumption sector persisted.
As a result, our GDP forecast for 2025 would be revised from +0.60% to +0.35%.
In the ninth month of the year, monthly GDP recorded a decline—already anticipated since the release of the flash estimate of quarterly GDP—of -0.6% MoM, below our -0.3% expectation and the -0.1% projected by consensus. 


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Economic Activity Declines in 3Q – 25

<ul>
<li>In the first fortnight of November, inflation stood at 0.47% bw, driven by the withdrawal of the electricity tariff subsidy and higher public transportation prices.</li>
<li>These pressures were partially offset by softer goods inflation associated with the Buen Fin discount program.</li>
<li>As a result, annual inflation for the first fortnight of November reached 3.61%, maintaining room for an additional rate cut by Banco de México in December.</li>
</ul>


In the first fortnight of November, inflation stood at 0.47% bw, driven by the withdrawal of the electricity tariff subsidy and higher public transportation prices.
These pressures were partially offset by softer goods inflation associated with the Buen Fin discount program.
As a result, annual inflation for the first fortnight of November reached 3.61%, maintaining room for an additional rate cut by Banco de México in December.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 1h – Nov: Buen Fin delivered limited price declines

<ul>
<li>October labor market data showed that employment conditions continue to weaken.</li>
<li>Although 655 thousand new jobs were created during the month, the increase was driven entirely by informal employment, pushing the informality rate up from 54.9% to 55.4% of the employed population.</li>
<li>The unemployment rate stood at 2.61% in October, below our forecast of 2.76% and the 2.78% expected by consensus.</li>
</ul>


October labor market data showed that employment conditions continue to weaken.
Although 655 thousand new jobs were created during the month, the increase was driven entirely by informal employment, pushing the informality rate up from 54.9% to 55.4% of the employed population.
The unemployment rate stood at 2.61% in October, below our forecast of 2.76% and the 2.78% expected by consensus.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Mexico’s Labor Market Continues to Show Signs of Weakness

<ul>
<li>In the second half of October, inflation stood at 0.14% bw, reflecting lower pressures on agricultural products.</li>
<li>As a result, headline inflation declined to 3.50% YoY, leaving room for Banco de México to deliver another rate cut at its December meeting.</li>
<li>Typically, inflation for this period averages 0.14% bw. </li>
</ul>


In the second half of October, inflation stood at 0.14% bw, reflecting lower pressures on agricultural products.
As a result, headline inflation declined to 3.50% YoY, leaving room for Banco de México to deliver another rate cut at its December meeting.
Typically, inflation for this period averages 0.14% bw. 


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 2h Oct - lower pressures leave room for Banxico