Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="190">South Korean export prices rose 7 percent year on year, signaling a strong recovery after summer weakness, while Chinese real retail sales grew around 3 percent despite nominal softness.</li><li data-start="192" data-end="358">Chinese monetary aggregates expanded, with M2 up 8 percent and M0 growth at 10.6 percent, indicating monetary and credit support despite consumer price deflation.</li><li data-start="360" data-end="571" data-is-last-node="">Thailand cut interest rates slightly, Japanese yields surged beyond policy adjustments, and U.S. artificial intelligence investment faces structural limits, likely causing widespread disappointment in returns.</li></ul>

South Korean export prices rose 7 percent year on year, signaling a strong recovery after summer weakness, while Chinese real retail sales grew around 3 percent despite nominal softness.Chinese monetary aggregates expanded, with M2 up 8 percent and M0 growth at 10.6 percent, indicating monetary and credit support despite consumer price deflation.Thailand cut interest rates slightly, Japanese yields surged beyond policy adjustments, and U.S. artificial intelligence investment faces structural limits, likely causing widespread disappointment in returns.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments -19 Dec 2025

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="148">Central banks in the United States, the Philippines, and India delivered rate cuts amid rising inflation pressures and mixed currency responses.</li><li data-start="149" data-end="272">China’s exports rebounded, Japan’s household spending weakened, and Taiwan recorded exceptional AI driven trade growth.</li><li data-start="273" data-end="426" data-is-last-node="">Diverging economic trajectories highlighted inflation risks, export volatility, and the influence of technology related demand on regional performance.</li></ul>

Central banks in the United States, the Philippines, and India delivered rate cuts amid rising inflation pressures and mixed currency responses.China’s exports rebounded, Japan’s household spending weakened, and Taiwan recorded exceptional AI driven trade growth.Diverging economic trajectories highlighted inflation risks, export volatility, and the influence of technology related demand on regional performance.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments -12 Dec 2025

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="156">United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising recession risk.</li><li data-start="157" data-end="277">India and China exhibit relatively constructive economic prospects, contrasting with softness in advanced economies.</li><li data-start="278" data-end="428" data-is-last-node="">Asian indicators are mixed, with Indonesia struggling on trade and Hong Kong retail sales recovering gradually but remaining below pre-COVID levels.</li></ul>

United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising recession risk.India and China exhibit relatively constructive economic prospects, contrasting with softness in advanced economies.Asian indicators are mixed, with Indonesia struggling on trade and Hong Kong retail sales recovering gradually but remaining below pre-COVID levels.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 5 Dec 2025

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="173">United States recession indicators are turning increasingly negative, with construction, retail, and regional Federal Reserve surveys signalling broad economic weakness.</li><li data-start="174" data-end="303">Bank of Korea held rates steady, while Asia shows mixed but occasionally strong export trends despite global trade frictions.</li><li data-start="304" data-end="447" data-is-last-node="">Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing and service activity reports posted sharp declines, reinforcing a deteriorating United States outlook.</li></ul>

United States recession indicators are turning increasingly negative, with construction, retail, and regional Federal Reserve surveys signalling broad economic weakness.Bank of Korea held rates steady, while Asia shows mixed but occasionally strong export trends despite global trade frictions.Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing and service activity reports posted sharp declines, reinforcing a deteriorating United States outlook.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 28 Nov 2025

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="130">U.S. data releases are expected to clarify economic conditions while political pressure complicates monetary policy sentiment.</li><li data-start="131" data-end="248">Japan’s new leadership has escalated geopolitical tensions with China through unnecessary provocative statements.</li><li data-start="249" data-end="360" data-is-last-node="">Asian growth remains mixed but resilient, led by strong performances in Vietnam, India, Taiwan, and Malaysia.</li></ul>

U.S. data releases are expected to clarify economic conditions while political pressure complicates monetary policy sentiment.Japan’s new leadership has escalated geopolitical tensions with China through unnecessary provocative statements.Asian growth remains mixed but resilient, led by strong performances in Vietnam, India, Taiwan, and Malaysia.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 21 Nov 2025