Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="156"><p data-start="2" data-end="156">United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising recession risk.</p></li><li data-start="157" data-end="277"><p data-start="159" data-end="277">India and China exhibit relatively constructive economic prospects, contrasting with softness in advanced economies.</p></li><li data-start="278" data-end="428" data-is-last-node=""><p data-start="280" data-end="428" data-is-last-node="">Asian indicators are mixed, with Indonesia struggling on trade and Hong Kong retail sales recovering gradually but remaining below pre-COVID levels.</p></li></ul>

United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising recession risk.India and China exhibit relatively constructive economic prospects, contrasting with softness in advanced economies.Asian indicators are mixed, with Indonesia struggling on trade and Hong Kong retail sales recovering gradually but remaining below pre-COVID levels.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 5 Dec 2025

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="173"><p data-start="2" data-end="173">United States recession indicators are turning increasingly negative, with construction, retail, and regional Federal Reserve surveys signalling broad economic weakness.</p></li><li data-start="174" data-end="303"><p data-start="176" data-end="303">Bank of Korea held rates steady, while Asia shows mixed but occasionally strong export trends despite global trade frictions.</p></li><li data-start="304" data-end="447" data-is-last-node=""><p data-start="306" data-end="447" data-is-last-node="">Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing and service activity reports posted sharp declines, reinforcing a deteriorating United States outlook.</p></li></ul>

United States recession indicators are turning increasingly negative, with construction, retail, and regional Federal Reserve surveys signalling broad economic weakness.Bank of Korea held rates steady, while Asia shows mixed but occasionally strong export trends despite global trade frictions.Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing and service activity reports posted sharp declines, reinforcing a deteriorating United States outlook.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 28 Nov 2025

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="130"><p data-start="2" data-end="130">U.S. data releases are expected to clarify economic conditions while political pressure complicates monetary policy sentiment.</p></li><li data-start="131" data-end="248"><p data-start="133" data-end="248">Japan’s new leadership has escalated geopolitical tensions with China through unnecessary provocative statements.</p></li><li data-start="249" data-end="360" data-is-last-node=""><p data-start="251" data-end="360" data-is-last-node="">Asian growth remains mixed but resilient, led by strong performances in Vietnam, India, Taiwan, and Malaysia.</p></li></ul>

U.S. data releases are expected to clarify economic conditions while political pressure complicates monetary policy sentiment.Japan’s new leadership has escalated geopolitical tensions with China through unnecessary provocative statements.Asian growth remains mixed but resilient, led by strong performances in Vietnam, India, Taiwan, and Malaysia.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 21 Nov 2025

<article dir="auto" tabindex="-1" data-turn-id="request-WEB:77fe167c-9100-4427-8bf0-6f7641f02742-1" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-scroll-anchor="true" data-turn="assistant"><div><div><div><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="b20e60c3-1671-45fc-8ecf-3962dd57fc1b" data-message-model-slug="gpt-5-1"><div><div><ul data-start="0" data-end="411" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node=""><li data-start="0" data-end="147"><p data-start="2" data-end="147">India delivers exceptionally low headline inflation while Japan and the United Kingdom face persistent price pressures and weak growth signals.</p></li><li data-start="148" data-end="278"><p data-start="150" data-end="278">Vietnam undergoes political restructuring, yet I see improving economic prospects driven by potential domestic-demand reforms.</p></li><li data-start="279" data-end="411" data-is-last-node=""><p data-start="281" data-end="411" data-is-last-node="">China’s seemingly weak October data reflect calendar effects, with monetary indicators instead pointing to strengthening momentum.</p></li></ul></div></div></div></div><div></div><div><div></div></div></div></div></article>

India delivers exceptionally low headline inflation while Japan and the United Kingdom face persistent price pressures and weak growth signals.Vietnam undergoes political restructuring, yet I see improving economic prospects driven by potential domestic-demand reforms.China’s seemingly weak October data reflect calendar effects, with monetary indicators instead pointing to strengthening momentum.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 14 Nov 2025

<ul><li>Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch.</li><li>Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates despite inflation running above target (≈3.6% annualized).</li><li>China: Industrial profits up 21.6% YoY in September, marking a two-month streak (August: +20.4%).</li></ul>

Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch.Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates despite inflation running above target (≈3.6% annualized).China: Industrial profits up 21.6% YoY in September, marking a two-month streak (August: +20.4%).

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 31 Oct 2025