Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone / Equity Bottom-Up

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone operates a shipping port on the west coast of India.  The Company's port provides services for bulk and container cargo, crude oil, and railway and other added services.

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

<ul>
<li>Since inception (May 15th), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 17.0% - same as MSCI Asia-ex Japan.  Since the last rebalancing (7th November) our Portfolio declined 2.5% vs MXASJ's 1.3% drop.</li>
<li>The recent underperformance came from drawdowns in Tencent Music, Tencent, Alibaba, Hynix, Hyundai Rotem, TSMC. We reduce the first two slightly, exclude BBCA, include Adani Ports, SCB, MAPI, HK Land.</li>
<li>We remain Overweight HK/China and Korea. We upgrade India to Overweight from Neutral, Thailand from Underweight to Neutral, and downgrade Indonesia to Underweight from Neutral. Stay Underweight Taiwan, Neutral Singapore.</li>
</ul>


Since inception (May 15th), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 17.0% - same as MSCI Asia-ex Japan.  Since the last rebalancing (7th November) our Portfolio declined 2.5% vs MXASJ's 1.3% drop.
The recent underperformance came from drawdowns in Tencent Music, Tencent, Alibaba, Hynix, Hyundai Rotem, TSMC. We reduce the first two slightly, exclude BBCA, include Adani Ports, SCB, MAPI, HK Land.
We remain Overweight HK/China and Korea. We upgrade India to Overweight from Neutral, Thailand from Underweight to Neutral, and downgrade Indonesia to Underweight from Neutral. Stay Underweight Taiwan, Neutral Singapore.


Asian Equities: Rebalancing Our Model Portfolio - More to India and ASEAN

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.</li>
<li>The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.</li>
<li>Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.</li>
</ul>


From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.
The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.
Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.


Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.

<ul>
<li>In November, FIIs sold a stupendous US$22 bn Asian equities, the second highest in the past 6 years. Bulk of it was in Korea (US$9.7 bn) and Taiwan (US$12 bn). </li>
<li>Concerns about sustainability of AI capex and doubts about Fed rate trajectory were the key drivers of FIIs' worries. The latter also depressed the Asian currencies.</li>
<li>Study of last 6 years cumulative buying/selling reveals massive selling in Taiwan/Korea. Flows in these markets should recover the most as FIIs play catch-up. India is a more difficult call.</li>
</ul>


In November, FIIs sold a stupendous US$22 bn Asian equities, the second highest in the past 6 years. Bulk of it was in Korea (US$9.7 bn) and Taiwan (US$12 bn). 
Concerns about sustainability of AI capex and doubts about Fed rate trajectory were the key drivers of FIIs' worries. The latter also depressed the Asian currencies.
Study of last 6 years cumulative buying/selling reveals massive selling in Taiwan/Korea. Flows in these markets should recover the most as FIIs play catch-up. India is a more difficult call.


Asian Equities: Stupendous FII Selling in November; Long-Term Study Foreshadows Structural Recovery.

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals / Equity Bottom-Up

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited manufactures consumer electrical products. The Company offers fans, lamps, luminaires, and pumps, as well as a variety of other household appliances.

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)

<ul>
<li>India's Nifty50 index reached an all-time high yesterday. However, many Indian stocks are near their 52-week lows. Many among them have strong forecast earnings growth, good balance sheets, attractive valuations.</li>
<li>We screen 17 stocks with double digit forecast EPS growth, PEG &lt; 1.4x, net debt to equity less than 50%. They are spread across construction, chemicals, healthcare, industrials and technology.</li>
<li>The largest five are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deepak-nitrite-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5845" rel="noopener">Deepak Nitrite (DN IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cohance-lifesciences-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33463" rel="noopener">Cohance Lifesciences (COHANCE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/basf-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19253" rel="noopener">BASF India Ltd (BASF IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crompton-greaves-consumer-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24046" rel="noopener">Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clean-science-and-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33648" rel="noopener">Clean Science and Technology (CLEAN IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


India's Nifty50 index reached an all-time high yesterday. However, many Indian stocks are near their 52-week lows. Many among them have strong forecast earnings growth, good balance sheets, attractive valuations.
We screen 17 stocks with double digit forecast EPS growth, PEG &lt; 1.4x, net debt to equity less than 50%. They are spread across construction, chemicals, healthcare, industrials and technology.
The largest five are Deepak Nitrite (DN IN), Cohance Lifesciences (COHANCE IN), BASF India Ltd (BASF IN), Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN), Clean Science and Technology (CLEAN IN).


Asian Equities: India's Nifty Is at All-Time High, These Quality Stocks Are Not.

<ul>
<li>Combination of concerns about Fed rate trajectory, AI capex monetization, Chinese growth slowdown and Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding brought the US and Asian markets 4-5% down since late October.</li>
<li>Expensive valuations are now justifiably correcting. Notwithstanding worries about a December cut, the interest rate trajectory remains resolutely downwards. Asian disinflation offers several central banks further room for monetary easing. </li>
<li>AI capex monetization worries will wax and wane. But Asian AI enablers' cash flows seem safe and valuations inexpensive. Corporate earnings environment is solid in US and recovering in Asia.</li>
</ul>


Combination of concerns about Fed rate trajectory, AI capex monetization, Chinese growth slowdown and Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding brought the US and Asian markets 4-5% down since late October.
Expensive valuations are now justifiably correcting. Notwithstanding worries about a December cut, the interest rate trajectory remains resolutely downwards. Asian disinflation offers several central banks further room for monetary easing. 
AI capex monetization worries will wax and wane. But Asian AI enablers' cash flows seem safe and valuations inexpensive. Corporate earnings environment is solid in US and recovering in Asia.


Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up