Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Wharf Real Estate Investment C / Equity Bottom-Up

Wharf Real Estate Investment Company Limited provides real estate investment services. The Company develops, invests, and operates residential and commercial properties. Wharf Real Estate Investment operates business in Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>We think Wharf REIC, which owns luxury malls in Hong Kong, is undergoing a structural de-rating, on the back of macro headwinds, currency impact and company fundamentals</li>
<li>Southbound consumption into Hong Kong has weakened deeply, catalyzed by a punitive USD-pegged Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and a collapsing Japanese Yen (JPY)</li>
<li>In latest interim results, Wharf REIC reported HK$5.1 billion revaluation deficit and a HK$2.4 billion net loss, representing negative rental reversions crystallizing into lower asset values.</li>
</ul>


We think Wharf REIC, which owns luxury malls in Hong Kong, is undergoing a structural de-rating, on the back of macro headwinds, currency impact and company fundamentals
Southbound consumption into Hong Kong has weakened deeply, catalyzed by a punitive USD-pegged Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and a collapsing Japanese Yen (JPY)
In latest interim results, Wharf REIC reported HK$5.1 billion revaluation deficit and a HK$2.4 billion net loss, representing negative rental reversions crystallizing into lower asset values.


Short Wharf REIC: Structural De-Rating and Weakened Luxury Consumption

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We think Singapore developers is at a sweet spot on the back of market recovery, stronger capital management and attractive valuation</li>
<li>Residential and office market are seeing solid recovery, on the back of steep rate decline.  Accelerated M&amp;As and buyback programs will further unlock value to shareholders</li>
<li>Sector is trading at 0.64x PB and 55% discount to RNAV, assuming mean version, this implies 72% and 60% upside to historical mean of 1.1x and 28% respectively</li>
</ul>


We think Singapore developers is at a sweet spot on the back of market recovery, stronger capital management and attractive valuation
Residential and office market are seeing solid recovery, on the back of steep rate decline.  Accelerated M&amp;As and buyback programs will further unlock value to shareholders
Sector is trading at 0.64x PB and 55% discount to RNAV, assuming mean version, this implies 72% and 60% upside to historical mean of 1.1x and 28% respectively


SG RE Developers: The Physical Market Recovery, Improved Capital Recycling, & Valuation Dislocation

<ul>
<li>We think Singapore REITs are positioned for a re-rating on the back of multiple catalysts: interest rate decline, accelerated M&amp;A and recovery in physical real estate market</li>
<li>3M SORA has declined sharply from 3.034% in January to 1.32% in November.  The steep decline in rates will boost earnings and result in more favorable REIT valuations</li>
<li>The physical market in Singapore is also recovering, especially in the office and residential market.  We think CICT, FCT, and UOL are well positioned to benefit from this cycle</li>
</ul>


We think Singapore REITs are positioned for a re-rating on the back of multiple catalysts: interest rate decline, accelerated M&amp;A and recovery in physical real estate market
3M SORA has declined sharply from 3.034% in January to 1.32% in November.  The steep decline in rates will boost earnings and result in more favorable REIT valuations
The physical market in Singapore is also recovering, especially in the office and residential market.  We think CICT, FCT, and UOL are well positioned to benefit from this cycle


LONG Singapore REITs: Capturing the Yield Compression Cycle and Asset Recycling Renaissance

UOL Group Limited is a property company. The Company has a diversified portfolio of development and investment properties, hotels, and serviced suites. UOL Group, through its subsidiary owns a portfolio of commercial assets and hotels. UOL Group operates in Asia, Oceania, and North America.

<ul>
<li>Macro Relief: The sharp decline in Singapore’s 3M SORA lowers financing costs and supports asset valuation through expected cap rate compression across the group's diverse property portfolio.</li>
<li>Execution Premium: UOL has demonstrated best-in-class performance in the recovering residential segment, highlighted by rapid sales take-up in high-margin, prime-location projects, providing robust earnings visibility.</li>
<li>Financial Fortress: UOL operates with a conservative net gearing ratio that is unparalleled among major listed peers, providing the strategic capacity required for opportunistic land banking.</li>
</ul>


Macro Relief: The sharp decline in Singapore’s 3M SORA lowers financing costs and supports asset valuation through expected cap rate compression across the group's diverse property portfolio.
Execution Premium: UOL has demonstrated best-in-class performance in the recovering residential segment, highlighted by rapid sales take-up in high-margin, prime-location projects, providing robust earnings visibility.
Financial Fortress: UOL operates with a conservative net gearing ratio that is unparalleled among major listed peers, providing the strategic capacity required for opportunistic land banking.


LONG UOL – The Rerating Imperative in Singapore Real Estate

GDS Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, develops and operates data centers. GDS Holdings offers risk and security management, information technology planing, remote monitoring, cloud hosting, virtualization, disaster recovery, and remote data protection services.

<ul>
<li>We like GDS holdings, a high-beta play on Asia data center market, on the back of strong AI and hyperscale cloud infra growth across Asia</li>
<li>GDS is a high beta play through 3 ways:  flexible capital deployment, high velocity AI growth, as well as diversification</li>
<li>We think AI growth and utilization may surprise on the upside.  Also, establishment of a C-REIT platform will enable asset recycling at a high multiple</li>
</ul>


We like GDS holdings, a high-beta play on Asia data center market, on the back of strong AI and hyperscale cloud infra growth across Asia
GDS is a high beta play through 3 ways:  flexible capital deployment, high velocity AI growth, as well as diversification
We think AI growth and utilization may surprise on the upside.  Also, establishment of a C-REIT platform will enable asset recycling at a high multiple


LONG GDS: A High-Beta Asia Digital Infrastructure DC Operator