Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Simandou’s arrival and softer mill output signal a clear shift toward weaker near-term demand, even as some investors position for policy surprises.</li>
<li>Technical signals point to stretched momentum, with the broader setup now tilting toward elevated odds of a near-term mean-reversion pullback.</li>
<li>The 65–62 spread climbed sharply this week, while the 62–58 spread moved lower, marking a notable divergence across grade differentials.</li>
</ul>


Simandou’s arrival and softer mill output signal a clear shift toward weaker near-term demand, even as some investors position for policy surprises.
Technical signals point to stretched momentum, with the broader setup now tilting toward elevated odds of a near-term mean-reversion pullback.
The 65–62 spread climbed sharply this week, while the 62–58 spread moved lower, marking a notable divergence across grade differentials.


Iron Ore Rally Stretches Thin as Technicals Flash Pullback Risk

Equity Bottom-Up

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

<ul>
<li>Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.</li>
<li>Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.</li>
<li>Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.</li>
</ul>


Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.
Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.
Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.


Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Amrutha Raj

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Is Gold poised for a breakout, confirmed by Silver's lead? Gold prices are currently forming a triangle continuation pattern akin to the one in Q4 2024.</li>
<li>Critically, silver serves as a lead indicator in this context; it has already completed its own triangle pattern and broken out to new highs.</li>
<li>The path ahead for gold prices is contingent on the timing of US rate cuts, real-yield trends, and geopolitical risks.</li>
</ul>


Is Gold poised for a breakout, confirmed by Silver's lead? Gold prices are currently forming a triangle continuation pattern akin to the one in Q4 2024.
Critically, silver serves as a lead indicator in this context; it has already completed its own triangle pattern and broken out to new highs.
The path ahead for gold prices is contingent on the timing of US rate cuts, real-yield trends, and geopolitical risks.


Is Silver Leading the Charge? Do New Highs in Silver Signal Green Light for New Gold Highs?

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

<ul>
<li>Henry Hub surged on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stayed soft due to tepid demand. Weather and LNG flows now drive a volatile winter spread.</li>
<li>The Henry Hub–TTF spread faces exceptional uncertainty, shaped by diverging regional fundamentals. Henry Hub remains sensitive to U.S. forecast shifts, while TTF is anchored by strong EU storage.</li>
<li>With weather driving short-term volatility, the spread remains highly unpredictable. Even steady U.S.–Europe LNG flows offer only partial stability as shifting forecasts and regional imbalances continue to reshape price dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Henry Hub surged on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stayed soft due to tepid demand. Weather and LNG flows now drive a volatile winter spread.
The Henry Hub–TTF spread faces exceptional uncertainty, shaped by diverging regional fundamentals. Henry Hub remains sensitive to U.S. forecast shifts, while TTF is anchored by strong EU storage.
With weather driving short-term volatility, the spread remains highly unpredictable. Even steady U.S.–Europe LNG flows offer only partial stability as shifting forecasts and regional imbalances continue to reshape price dynamics.


Gas Markets See Divergence Due to Weather, LNG Flows and Europe’s Calm Start

<ul>
<li>Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.</li>
<li>Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore. </li>
<li>Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.</li>
</ul>


Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.
Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore. 
Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.


Policy Whispers Offer Relief, but Structural Damage Points to Iron Ore Headwinds