US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> is now eligible for Nasdaq100 following its listing change from NYSE to Nasdaq on 9 December 2025, marking the largest exchange transfer in history.</li>
<li>The listing transfer was completed after the December 2025 annual review cut-off, so Nasdaq100 inclusion is anticipated by December 2026.</li>
<li>Forecasted passive fund demand upon inclusion is ~600m shares, $70bn and 25 ADV.</li>
</ul>



Walmart (WMT US) is now eligible for Nasdaq100 following its listing change from NYSE to Nasdaq on 9 December 2025, marking the largest exchange transfer in history.
The listing transfer was completed after the December 2025 annual review cut-off, so Nasdaq100 inclusion is anticipated by December 2026.
Forecasted passive fund demand upon inclusion is ~600m shares, $70bn and 25 ADV.


Walmart (WMT US): Unwrapping Nasdaq100 Inclusion Following Listing Transfer

Medline Industries is a medical supply company, manufacturer and distributor.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medline-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45954:1" rel="noopener">Medline (MDLN US)</a> goes public on 17 December on Nasdaq with an estimated market cap of $40bn, 27% lower than the consensus of $55bn.</li>
<li>Inclusion in US indices is expected in March 2026, as the security meets US eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>Inclusion in Global indices is expected in May and June 2026 with a potential delay to August due to low float cap.</li>
</ul>



Medline (MDLN US) goes public on 17 December on Nasdaq with an estimated market cap of $40bn, 27% lower than the consensus of $55bn.
Inclusion in US indices is expected in March 2026, as the security meets US eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.
Inclusion in Global indices is expected in May and June 2026 with a potential delay to August due to low float cap.


Medline (MDLN US): Global & US Index Inclusion; Overestimated Valuation?

Seagate Technology Holdings Public Limited Company offers computer hardware products. The Company designs, manufactures, and markets hard disk drives for enterprise applications, client compute applications, client non-compute applications, personal data backup systems, portable external storage systems and digital media systems.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seagate-technology-holdings-pl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9129:1" rel="noopener">Seagate Technology (STX US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-digital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1094:1" rel="noopener">Western Digital (WDC US)</a> are the top forecasted additions with the highest price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lululemon-athletica-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8316:1" rel="noopener">Lululemon Athletica (LULU US)</a> are the forecasted deletions with the largest price drop.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrovial-se-d1237de2-ee34-4fbb-8db7-53dd686904f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46086:1" rel="noopener">Ferrovial (FER US)</a> can be a surprise addition depending on the treatment of its foreign listing.</li>
</ul>



Seagate Technology (STX US), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and Western Digital (WDC US) are the top forecasted additions with the highest price surge.

Trade Desk (TTD US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU US) are the forecasted deletions with the largest price drop.

Ferrovial (FER US) can be a surprise addition depending on the treatment of its foreign listing.


Nasdaq100 December 2025 Forecast (Final): 12 Changes

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> became eligible at the last minute for S&amp;P500 inclusion in the December 2025 review, following positive Q3 earnings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> experienced a significant turnaround in profitability in the last year, but its latest earnings are driven by non-operational activity.</li>
<li>The company's market cap and other eligibility metrics are estimated to place it among the top addition candidates for S&amp;P500 with a higher chance of inclusion in 2026.</li>
</ul>



Marvell Technology (MRVL US) became eligible at the last minute for S&amp;P500 inclusion in the December 2025 review, following positive Q3 earnings.

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) experienced a significant turnaround in profitability in the last year, but its latest earnings are driven by non-operational activity.
The company's market cap and other eligibility metrics are estimated to place it among the top addition candidates for S&amp;P500 with a higher chance of inclusion in 2026.


Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system installation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services. The Company's commercial and industrial markets include office buildings, retail centers, apartment complexes, hotels, manufacturing plants, and government facilities.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfort-systems-usa-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6730:1" rel="noopener">Comfort Systems USA (FIX US)</a> are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pure-storage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27421:1" rel="noopener">Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solstice-advanced-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45953:1" rel="noopener">Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US)</a> face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertiv-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33140:1" rel="noopener">Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)</a> has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kellogg-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16090:1" rel="noopener">Kellogg Co (K US)</a> which is still pending.</li>
</ul>



CRH (CRH US) and Comfort Systems USA (FIX US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.

Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US) face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.

Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US) has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of Kellogg Co (K US) which is still pending.


S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack