Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consistent declines in fund ownership in ICBC finally hit a floor.</li>
<li>Over the past six-months, 8 new positions — led by Goldman Sachs and Heptagon — have outpaced 3 closures, with 29 buyers versus 18 sellers.</li>
<li>ICBC is the 6th most widely owned stock in the China &amp; HK Financials sector, ahead of Bank Of China Ltd but behind China Merchants and China Construction Bank.</li>
</ul>


Consistent declines in fund ownership in ICBC finally hit a floor.
Over the past six-months, 8 new positions — led by Goldman Sachs and Heptagon — have outpaced 3 closures, with 29 buyers versus 18 sellers.
ICBC is the 6th most widely owned stock in the China &amp; HK Financials sector, ahead of Bank Of China Ltd but behind China Merchants and China Construction Bank.


ICBC:  Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>An in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.</li>
<li>Based on ICBC’s historical post-earnings behavior and current implied vol levels, we recommend a hedge into the event.</li>
<li>We explore post-earnings moves that show a potentially exploitable pattern.</li>
</ul>


An in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
Based on ICBC’s historical post-earnings behavior and current implied vol levels, we recommend a hedge into the event.
We explore post-earnings moves that show a potentially exploitable pattern.


ICBC (1398.HK) Earnings: Volatility Pricing, Post-Release Trade Setup & Tactical Hedge

<ul>
<li>Call volumes dominate tradng across single stocks with the Put/Call ratio hitting its 3rd lowest level since the beginning of November. Volumes continue trend lower in place since early November.</li>
<li>Auto companies seeing big increases in option volumes with Li Auto and Great Wall Motor moving in opposite directions since the middle of the month.  </li>
<li>We add 2 new tables showing the largest volume increases across Puts and Calls – a conveient way to view unusual changes in trading activity.</li>
</ul>


Call volumes dominate tradng across single stocks with the Put/Call ratio hitting its 3rd lowest level since the beginning of November. Volumes continue trend lower in place since early November.
Auto companies seeing big increases in option volumes with Li Auto and Great Wall Motor moving in opposite directions since the middle of the month.  
We add 2 new tables showing the largest volume increases across Puts and Calls – a conveient way to view unusual changes in trading activity.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:494:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (A) (601398 CH)</a> is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:30-18:30, Beijing time. 
</li>
<li>
Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate price action comparable to that of a typical trading day. </li>
<li>
Dividend Outlook: ICBC has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.0% for H shares and 4.5% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.</li>
</ul>



ICBC (H) (1398 HK) / ICBC (A) (601398 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:30-18:30, Beijing time. 


Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate price action comparable to that of a typical trading day. 

Dividend Outlook: ICBC has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.0% for H shares and 4.5% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.


ICBC (1398 HK) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

<ul>
<li>Big increase in single stock volumes particularly Puts which pushed the single stock put call ratio over 1 for the first time since early November.</li>
<li>Heavy Put trading in the Financial Sector especially with ICBC and CCB.</li>
<li>Health Care, Energy and Materials are the 3 sectors seeing higher Put trading vs Calls and are also the 3 sectors with the lowest 3M implied vol 1 year percentile.</li>
</ul>


Big increase in single stock volumes particularly Puts which pushed the single stock put call ratio over 1 for the first time since early November.
Heavy Put trading in the Financial Sector especially with ICBC and CCB.
Health Care, Energy and Materials are the 3 sectors seeing higher Put trading vs Calls and are also the 3 sectors with the lowest 3M implied vol 1 year percentile.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 30 – Jan 03

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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