Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There’s been an avalanche of biased or disingenuous comments along the lines of “Samsung, TSMC won’t use High N.A. EUV” or “too expensive, too difficult”. </li>
<li>Samsung will use High NA in 4F² DRAM by 2028; TSMC in some but not all A14 processes by 2028. </li>
<li>We should really think about High NA as optionality value for ASML (share price), rather than a catalyst.</li>
</ul>


There’s been an avalanche of biased or disingenuous comments along the lines of “Samsung, TSMC won’t use High N.A. EUV” or “too expensive, too difficult”. 
Samsung will use High NA in 4F² DRAM by 2028; TSMC in some but not all A14 processes by 2028. 
We should really think about High NA as optionality value for ASML (share price), rather than a catalyst.


No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,018.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,873mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc Financial, Quanta Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,018.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,873mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc Financial, Quanta Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc Financial

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics, Gold Circuit Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics, Gold Circuit Electronics.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a "democratization of innovation between Technology Development &amp; High Volume Manufacturing</li>
<li>This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it's a seismic shift at a critical juncture </li>
<li>If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that's not what what we see happening. </li>
</ul>


Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a "democratization of innovation between Technology Development &amp; High Volume Manufacturing
This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it's a seismic shift at a critical juncture 
If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that's not what what we see happening. 


Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

Comments about Samsung and TSMC not using High NA EUV are misleading; both companies plan to implement it by 2028. High NA should be seen as...

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

If Intel is indeed switching from CE to Copy TSMC, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that's not what...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

Comments about Samsung and TSMC not using High NA EUV are misleading; both companies plan to implement it by 2028. High NA should be seen as...

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

If Intel is indeed switching from CE to Copy TSMC, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that's not what...

William Keating

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...