Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments are expected to grow +3~5% QoQ, ASP is expected to increase +0~2% QoQ and Gross margin is projected at 27~29%.</li>
<li>2Q25 by platform: PMIC to see significant growth; discrete to grow in low single digits; DDIC to remain flat.</li>
<li>The 2024 annual dividend policy is maintained at NT$4.5 per share.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments are expected to grow +3~5% QoQ, ASP is expected to increase +0~2% QoQ and Gross margin is projected at 27~29%.
2Q25 by platform: PMIC to see significant growth; discrete to grow in low single digits; DDIC to remain flat.
The 2024 annual dividend policy is maintained at NT$4.5 per share.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>
UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread</li>
<li>
CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread</li>
</ul>



TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread

UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread

CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD944.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,396mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial, Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD944.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,396mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial, Mediatek.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 2nd): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology

<ul>
<li>We assume that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. </li>
</ul>


We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…

2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments to grow, ASP to increase, gross margin projected; PMIC to see significant growth, dividend policy maintained at...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 2nd): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…

​2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments to grow, ASP to increase, gross margin projected; PMIC to see significant growth, dividend policy maintained at...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 2nd): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments to grow, ASP to increase, gross margin projected; PMIC to see significant growth, dividend policy maintained at...

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...