Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
TSMC's Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia. </li>
<li>
U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&amp;D competitors will struggle to match. </li>
<li>
Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.</li>
</ul>



TSMC's Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia. 

U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&amp;D competitors will struggle to match. 

Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.


What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>1Q15 Smartphone units up 1.5-3% YoY but given accelerated imports to US and Chinese consumer subsidies, end-demand was probably flat YoY. TSMC 1Q25 revenues suggest that Smartphone chips declined YoY.</li>
<li>We should expect a correction in 2H25 and overall flat 2025 YoY.</li>
<li>The only positive is that chips are getting bigger (AI cores) and more expensive (3nm) and hence positive to Mediatek and Qualcomm, but not to phone Brands Apple included.</li>
</ul>


1Q15 Smartphone units up 1.5-3% YoY but given accelerated imports to US and Chinese consumer subsidies, end-demand was probably flat YoY. TSMC 1Q25 revenues suggest that Smartphone chips declined YoY.
We should expect a correction in 2H25 and overall flat 2025 YoY.
The only positive is that chips are getting bigger (AI cores) and more expensive (3nm) and hence positive to Mediatek and Qualcomm, but not to phone Brands Apple included.


Smartphone Market Grew 2% in 1Q25 with 2 Positives Boosters: Apple Restocking in US, China Subsidies

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting the Spread at This Level</li>
<li>ChipMOS: +3.2% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread: Local Shares' Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs</li>
<li>CHT: +1.3% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread; ADR Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting the Spread at This Level
ChipMOS: +3.2% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread: Local Shares' Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs
CHT: +1.3% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread; ADR Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD842.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,406mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD842.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,406mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline</li>
<li>Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared</li>
<li>PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline
Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared
PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)

TSMC's Arizona fab progress validates global replication model, strengthens ties with U.S. clients like Apple and Nvidia, anchoring long-term...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Smartphone Market Grew 2% in 1Q25 with 2 Positives Boosters: Apple Restocking in US, China Subsidies

1Q15 slight increase in smartphone units, but end-demand likely remained flat. Expect a correction in 2H25 with overall flat 2025 YoY. Positives...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)

​TSMC's Arizona fab progress validates global replication model, strengthens ties with U.S. clients like Apple and Nvidia, anchoring long-term...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Smartphone Market Grew 2% in 1Q25 with 2 Positives Boosters: Apple Restocking in US, China Subsidies

​1Q15 slight increase in smartphone units, but end-demand likely remained flat. Expect a correction in 2H25 with overall flat 2025 YoY. Positives...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

​TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC's Arizona fab progress validates global replication model, strengthens ties with U.S. clients like Apple and Nvidia, anchoring long-term...

1Q15 slight increase in smartphone units, but end-demand likely remained flat. Expect a correction in 2H25 with overall flat 2025 YoY. Positives...

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...